The University of Virginia’s “Crystal Ball” has moved western Wisconsin’s 3rd CD to “likely Republican” from “lean Republican.”

It was one of three House races where the organization changed its rating. In its reasoning, “Crystal Ball” cited reporting in Axios over the weekend that the House Majority PAC was likely to cancel its nearly $1.7 million media buy backing Dem Brad Pfaff, a state senator from Onalaska.

According to AdImpact, that buy isn’t slated to start until the final two weeks of the race. It makes up the bulk of the nearly $2.2 million in ads that Pfaff and the groups backing him are slated to run over the final four weeks.

By comparison, GOP candidate Derrick Van Orden and those backing him are poised to spend nearly $2.5 million.

In terms of gross ratings points — how often the ads run — the GOP advantage is 34,276-20,457.

“Pfaff is going against history: 1990 was the most recent midterm where the White House party held an open seat in a district that the sitting president lost 2 years earlier,” “Crystal Ball” wrote.

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