NBC News’ Chuck Todd says it’ll take a landslide to oust U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin from her seat, adding President Joe Biden might need her help to win in Wisconsin.
The former “Meet the Press” host made the observations at a WisPolitics DC breakfast event, where he said Republicans are favored to win the Senate next year. He said Dems won’t have a chance to retain control without a Baldwin win next year.
“Obviously they want Tammy Baldwin to be in there,” he said. “There is no scenario where she loses and they somehow keep the Senate.”
Todd says Baldwin is the favorite, noting Republicans failed to recruit U.S. Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Allouez, to run against her. But he adds since she’s running in a battleground state like Wisconsin, she still shouldn’t phone it in.
“Only if the whole national environment is moving in another direction do (Republicans) really think they can actually knock her off,” he said. “But it’s Wisconsin; it’s going to be a five-point race at best.”
Many GOP insiders favored Gallagher, picked by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to chair the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, to take on Baldwin in 2024. But Gallagher passed and now attention has focused on two businessmen, Eric Hovde and Scott Mayer.
Trempealeau County Board Supv. Stacey Klein and Rejani Raveendran, a 40-year-old college student and chair of the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point College Republicans, have filed as Republicans to challenge Baldwin.
Todd also suggested Biden also might need more of a campaign boost from a strong incumbent such as Baldwin in Dane County next year as he faces strong headwinds from within his own party.
Todd said if independent presidential candidate and philosopher Cornel West is on the ballot he could cut into Biden’s share of Dane County’s overwhelmingly blue voters. A Biden win would likely be by three points or less, Todd said, so he’ll need every vote he can get. That’s especially true since Dems running statewide heavily rely on Dem strongholds in Dane and Milwaukee counties, the two most populous counties in the state.
“Wisconsin, tell me who’s on the ballot, because if Cornel West is on the ballot, I think he draws enough from Madison and Dane County that it’s a huge problem for Biden,” he said.
West could do especially well in the historically liberal progressive south-central part of the state if he and voters stay focused on what’s going on in the Middle East, Todd added. Many in his own party have criticized Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, arguing his strong support for Israel could shed Muslim voters and those who support Palestine.
West didn’t run for president in 2020, but he did endorse U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, D-Vt., who was the runner-up in Dane County in the Dem primary. Sanders earned 67,424 votes in Dane County compared to Biden’s 92,892. The next candidate behind Sanders was U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who earned 4,002 votes in Dane County.
For comparison, former President Donald Trump earned 27,680 votes in Dane County during the 2020 GOP primary.
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