Political insiders argue Wednesday’s Republican debate will likely lead to three contenders dropping out before the next matchup.
Politicos at a Tommy G. Thompson Center on Public Leadership event in Milwaukee, hosted in part by WisPolitics, said the debate was a chance for candidates to differentiate themselves from former President Trump. But former Gov. Tommy Thompson said some candidates didn’t seize the chance to win over GOP primary voters.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and current North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum likely won’t make it to the next round, said the longest-serving governor in state history and a former presidential candidate himself.
Marquette University Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin noted the next debate Sept. 27 in California requires at least 3 percent in a national poll to make it. Wednesday night’s debate had a 1 percent threshold.
“And for those folks who didn’t make much of an impression last night, I think that’s a big problem,” he said.
Former Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Washington Bureau Chief Craig Gilbert said Trump actually did the rest of the field a favor by giving them the chance to hash it out without the one-term president on the stage.
“I thought it presented an interesting vision. It allowed us to sort of imagine what the Republican Party might look like after Trump,” Gilbert said. “But at the same time, a party dominated and changed by Trump.”
Regardless of who came out on top, candidates will need to secure independent voters in battleground states such as Wisconsin to win the general election, the panelists said.
Americans for Prosperity State Director Megan Novak suggested conservative activists are looking for a candidate who can bring new leadership to the party. She also criticized economic policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, which began under Trump and continued with President Biden.
“Because, as Senator (Julian) Bradley said, limited government, limited spending is a core Republican principle,” Novak said. “And what a lot of the Republican Party believes in, and we didn’t see that through the COVID spending times.”
And former GOP Assembly Speaker Scott Jensen stressed how important winning over Wisconsin voters will be. He noted fewer than 100,000 voters decided the last election and nearly a quarter of those were Wisconsinites.
“So I think – independent voters – if anyone scored with independent voters last night, it was Nikki Haley,” Jensen said. “Nikki Haley’s stance on abortion was a home run.”
Novak also said many AFP activists at a Milwaukee debate watch party liked what Haley and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy had to say.
Many have cited abortion as a losing issue for Republicans, pointing to Dems winning more statewide elections since federal abortion protections fell. But conservatives can still leverage the issue to their advantage, said Bradley, R-Franklin.
“Being pro-life is supporting women after the birth of their children and being able to support the children after their birth,” he said. “If we want to change people’s hearts and minds, we have to deal with our actions, not just by changing the law. And I think that’s where our biggest opportunity is going to be.”
Bradley also said Haley, the only woman on the stage Wednesday night, did a good job expressing her abortion stance, which she has said looks for a “consensus” on the issue.
Thompson also said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was also a “clear winner” because he did what he had to, which was stopping himself from dropping further behind Trump in the polls.
Ramaswamy was another winner, though he wore on people as the night went on, Thompson said. And many others at Thursday’s event agreed, though they pointed out there is still a long way to go and being one of five winners Wednesday night is no guarantee for future success.
Franklin said it’ll be clear if DeSantis had a good night if his polling holds steady or improves over the next three weeks. If Ramaswamy’s numbers get a boost, that would mean a loss for DeSantis, Franklin added.
Jensen argued Ramaswamy will make headlines for a short time, but he doesn’t have what it takes to go the distance.
“This is the shooting star candidate who is going to dominate the news for the next month or two,” he said. “And then like Herman Cain, and Ben Carson … we just kind of move on. And those folks will have their moment in the sun, and they’ll talk about it the rest of their life, but they’re not – they never were – going to be president.”
