The new Marquette University Law School Poll found a narrow advantage for Kamala Harris in Wisconsin’s presidential race amid a rise in Dem enthusiasm to vote.
Meanwhile, the spread in the U.S. Senate race in head-to-head questions closely matched the presidential race for the first time this year after Dem incumbent Tammy Baldwin has consistently run ahead of the top of the ticket in previous Marquette polls.
The new poll, conducted after the Democratic National Convention, found 52% of likely and registered voters favored Harris, while 48% backed Donald Trump in head-to-head matchups. Harris also led Trump when minor candidates were included.
The last survey, done after the Republican National Convention, found a 1-point gap between Trump and Harris.
Poll Director Charles Franklin said it’s hard to say whether Harris is seeing a bounce in Wisconsin since the movement was within the margin of error. He also noted national polling hasn’t picked up a significant upswing for her post-convention.
But he said other findings suggested things have improved for Harris. That includes Dems being more excited to vote than Republicans for the first time this year.
Ninety-one percent of Dems said they are very or somewhat enthusiastic to vote this fall, compared to 82% of Republicans who said the same.
Last month when Joe Biden was still in the race, 81% of Dems were excited to vote, while 64% said the same in June.
Last month, 86% of Republicans were enthusiastic to vote, compared to 76% in June.
Harris also leads Trump among those who are most likely to say they’re enthusiastic to vote.
“This is one of the giant changes that’s taken place,” Franklin said. “But a good chunk of that of course is because Democrats who used to be not enthusiastic now are enthusiastic.”
In a multiple-candidate race, 47% of registered voters backed Harris, while 43% supported Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has dropped out of the race but remains on the Wisconsin ballot, was at 6%, while Libertarian Chase Oliver, Green Jill Stein and independent Cornel West were all at 1% each.
The combined vote share for third-party candidates was 9%, higher than what it typically is in Wisconsin. In 2016, third-party and independent candidates received 5.5% of the vote.
Kennedy’s support continued to decline from 16% in January, when Biden was still in the race. Franklin said 86% of those surveyed in the new poll knew Kennedy had dropped out. He remains on the Wisconsin ballot, but is challenging that decision in court.
In the Senate race, 52% of registered voters backed Baldwin, while 48% supported GOP businessman Eric Hovde.
Among likely voters, it was 52-47 in Baldwin’s favor after the poll a month ago found a 52-47 edge for Baldwin among registered and likely voters.
In a multiple candidate race, 51% of registered voters backed Baldwin, while 45% supported Hovde, 2% backed America First candidate Thomas Leager and 2% supported Phil Anderson, a Libertarian who’s running under the Disrupt the Corruption banner this year as an independent.
The poll also found Baldwin was viewed favorably by 47% of registered voters and negatively by 46%. By comparison, Hovde’s split was 34-43.
Among those on the presidential tickets, Dem VP nominee Tim Walz was the only one with a net positive rating among voters. Forty-three percent had a favorable impression of the Minnesota guv, while 37% had a negative one.
For the others, the numbers were:
- Harris 47-51;
- Trump 43-56;
- JD Vance 37-47;
- Kennedy 38-46.
The survey of 822 registered voters was in the field Aug. 28-Sept. 5, and that sample had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. It included a sample of 738 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
Thirty-five percent of the sample was Republican, while 32% was Dem and 32% identified as independents. The long-term average for the poll has been 30% Republican, 29% Dem and 40% independent.
Franklin said it’s unclear if that was a fluke or a reflection of independents being more likely to identify as partisan as the election draws closer.
FiveThirtyEight rates Marquette the nation’s third-best pollster with three out of three stars.
