The latest Marquette University Law School Poll again found a close race for president in Wisconsin as voters are increasingly unenthusiastic about turning out this fall.

In the Senate race, Dem incumbent Tammy Baldwin had an edge on GOP challenger Eric Hovde.

The new poll found President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump tied at 50% apiece among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup. Among likely voters, it was 51-49 in Biden’s favor.

When other candidates were factored in, the race shifted to Trump’s favor. The former president was backed by 43% of registered voters, while Biden was at 40% and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 8%. 

Activist Cornel West was at 4%, while Green Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver were both at  2%.

The latest poll showed a continued erosion of support for Kennedy, who was at 16% in January and 13% in April.

Poll Director Charles Franklin said Kennedy’s support has dropped across the spectrum, but it was particularly notable among Republicans. He was at 16% among self-identified GOP voters in January, but 6% in the latest survey. Among Dems, he was down from 12% five months ago to 6% now.

Voters also have a much less positive view of the third party candidate than they did before. In the latest poll, 25% had a favorable impression of Kennedy, while 49% had an unfavorable one. Kennedy had a 35-33 split in January.

In Wisconsin’s Senate race, 52% favored Baldwin, D-Madison, while 47% supported Hovde among registered and likely voters.

The split among registered voters hasn’t changed since April, when the race was tied among likely voters.

Franklin noted those results are after undecideds are pressed to select one candidate or another. Without that, Baldwin had a 45-38 edge among registered voters, with 17% undecided. Among likely voters, it was a 49-40 split in her favor, with 11% undecided.

Meanwhile, more voters have an opinion of Hovde than they did before, but his net negatives are up.

In the latest poll, 23% said they have a favorable opinion of him, while 32% didn’t and 44% didn’t express one. In April, his split was 19-24 with 56% saying they didn’t know.

Baldwin’s split was 45-44.

Franklin said those who don’t have an opinion of Hovde will likely fall into the teens by fall.

The poll also found Trump leading among those who say they’re very enthusiastic to vote this fall. Meanwhile, Biden had the edge with all other voters.

Overall, 46% said they’re very enthusiastic to vote this fall, while 21% are somewhat enthusiastic. 

In April, 47% were very enthusiastic and 22% somewhat enthusiastic, and 49-25 in January. By comparison, 59% of registered voters in June 2020 said they were very enthusiastic to vote and 26% said they were somewhat enthusiastic.

Among those very enthusiastic, Trump had a 61-39 edge. Meanwhile, it was 57-43 for Biden among those who are somewhat enthusiastic, 58-41 among those not very enthusiastic and 65-33 among those not enthusiastic at all.

“Biden has real strength among the voters who are not that engaged,” Franklin said. “Trump has real strength among the people who are really excited to participate. How does this balance out?”

The poll was conducted June 12-20 using a hybrid sample of 871 registered voters. It included 637 who were selected from the state voter registration list and 234 from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to participate in the survey online. Overall, 769 interviews were done online and 102 using live phone interviews.

The margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.9 percentage points for the 784 likely voters in the sample.

The sample’s partisan makeup was 31% GOP, 29% Dem and 40% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term average has been 30-29-40.

FiveThirtyEight rates Marquette the nation’s third-best pollster with three out of three stars.

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