A new poll from Marist finds the presidential race in Wisconsin separated by a “razor thin margin” of one point, and U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin slightly ahead of GOP opponent Eric Hovde.
The poll found 50% of likely voters back Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in a head-to-head matchup, while 49% back Donald Trump and JD Vance and 1% supported another party’s candidates. Results include those who are leaning toward a candidate.
Among adults statewide, the poll found that 46% have a favorable view of Harris, while 48% have an unfavorable view. Trump’s score was 45-52.
In the U.S. Senate race, Baldwin, D-Madison, is doing slightly better than the top of the ticket, with 51% of likely voters saying they plan to support her, against 48% supporting Hovde.
Baldwin also has better favorability ratings, with a 45-43 split. Hovde’s score is 36-43, with 21% of voters who were undecided or had never heard of him.
On the generic congressional ballot, Dems have the edge on Republicans as well. Fifty percent of registered voters plan to support the Democrat in their congressional district, while 47% plan to support the Republican.
Marist’s results are similar to other polls conducted by AARP Wisconsin and Quinnipiac University released this week, which both found the presidential race split 49-48 for Harris in a head-to-head matchup. The other poll from Emerson College released this week found it 49-48 for Trump. All three other polls also found Baldwin outperforming Hovde by three to four points.
Marist surveyed 1,431 Wisconsin adults, 1,194 of which were likely voters, from Sept. 12-17 by live phone interviews, by text and online. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percent for all adults and plus or minus 3.6 percent for likely voters.
FiveThirtyEight ranks Marist as the sixth-best pollster nationally, with 2.9 stars out of three.
