The University of Virginia’s first “Crystal Ball” ratings of the 2026 House races lists Wisconsin’s 3rd CD as one of the 19 toss up races nationally.
The Center for Politics lists GOP U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil’s southeastern Wisconsin seat as “likely Republican.” The rest of the state’s districts were “safe” for the incumbent party.
The center grouped U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Prairie du Chien, with the two other GOP incumbents who ran behind Trump last fall as he won their districts by at least 5 points.
Dem Rebecca Cooke, who Van Orden beat by 2.7 percentage points in 2024, has already announced plans to run for the western Wisconsin seat again.
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“They all could face rematches with their 2024 challengers,” the center wrote of the three GOP incumbents who ran behind Trump. “So while the districts themselves suggest Leans Republican, the members themselves turned in Toss-up-style performances in 2024, and that’s the rating we’ll start with.”
Overall, the center notes history suggests Dems will be favored to flip the House in 2026, and the authors favor the party to win control next year, though “Republicans do have a couple of factors working in their favor, though, that could help them as they seek to defy history.”
The initial ratings start with Dems ahead 209-207 when counting likely and safe seats, in addition to the 19 toss-ups. Thirteen of the toss-up seats are held by Republicans.
