A year out from the state’s first open gubernatorial race in 15 years, voters largely don’t have an impression of the candidates vying for the job, according to the latest Marquette University Law School Poll.

It’s even worse in the April race for the state Supreme Court, where more than eight in 10 voters don’t have an impression of either announced candidate.

Poll Director Charles Franklin said history has shown candidates in fall races see little gain in name recognition until the summer ahead of their election. He said voters start tuning in between June and the August primary, and he expects name ID to climb in that window.

“Come next fall, people will be keenly aware of the race,” Franklin said.

GOP U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, of Minocqua, had the highest name ID of any announced candidate for guv among registered voters. Still, 62% said they didn’t have an opinion of Tiffany, which Franklin noted was an improvement from June 2023, when 75% didn’t know enough about him to offer one. 

Among those who did, 18% had a favorable impression of Tiffany, while 21% didn’t. Washington County Exec Josh Schoemann had a 9-8 split, while it was 4-7 for Andy Manske, a 26-year-old medical service tech.

“They just reflect the fact that people haven’t tuned into the race very much,” Franklin said.

It was much the same on the Dem side. Milwaukee County Exec David Crowley and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez were the best known of the announced contenders among registered voters. Even then, 74% percent didn’t have an opinion of Crowley, while 75% didn’t have one of Rodriguez.

The lieutenant governor was the only Dem who had a net positive rating; 13% had a favorable view of her, while 12% had a negative one.

The splits for those candidates were:

  • Crowley, 12-14.
  • State Rep. Francesca Hong, of Madison, 8-14.
  • Former Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. Leader Missy Hughes, 5-11.
  • Former state Rep. Brett Hulsey, of Madison, 4-11.
  • State Sen. Kelda Roys, of Madison, 7-10.
  • Ryan Strnad, a beer vendor and political newcomer, 3-8.

The lack of familiarity with the candidates also produced wide-open primaries.

On the GOP side, 70% of Republican primary voters said they hadn’t made up their minds. Among the rest, Tiffany received 23%, while Schoemann was at 6%, and Manske less than half a point.

Among Dems, 81% were undecided, and no candidate cracked single-digit support. Hong was at 6%, Rodriguez 4%, Crowley 3%, Roys 3%, Hughes 2%, Strnad less than half a point, and Hulsey had no support.

The poll didn’t include former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who has been weighing a bid for the Dem nomination.

“We are far from knowing who the frontrunner is in the Democratic primary,” Franklin said.

Meanwhile, 84% of voters surveyed didn’t have an opinion of Chris Taylor, the liberal candidate running for the state Supreme Court in April, and 85% didn’t have one of Maria Lazar, the conservative.

Franklin said he didn’t ask a head-to-head question with the two candidates because he anticipated they would be poorly known.

Taylor, a former Dem lawmaker and member of the 4th District Court of Appeals, was seen favorably by 7% of those surveyed, while 9% had an unfavorable view of her. The split for Lazar, a member of the 2nd District Court of Appeals, was 7-8.

Though voters don’t know the candidates well, 69% said they are absolutely certain to vote in April, while 20% said they were likely to vote, 10% said it was 50-50 and 2% said they wouldn’t.

Among Dems, 74% said they were certain to vote, while 69% of Republicans said the same, as did 52% of independents.

Liberals have been on a winning streak in spring Supreme Court races lately. In four of the past five races, their candidate has won by double digits, and insiders say the spring electorate now tilts toward Dems.

In the poll, 83% of respondents said judicial candidates should discuss issues likely to come before the court. That was up from 79% in February 2025.

In her campaign rollout video, Lazar vowed not to discuss on the campaign trail how she’d vote on cases, saying judicial ethics have been “thrown out the window” in recent races. She pledged to only discuss how she has ruled on cases and how she makes her decisions, even though Lazar acknowledged voters often want to know how judicial candidates would rule.

Franklin said President Donald Trump continues to see his numbers tacking down, but “not dropping like a rock.”

Forty-six percent of respondents overall approved of the job Trump is doing, while 53% disapproved. In June, his split was 47-52, and it was 48-51 in February.

Ninety-four percent of Republicans surveyed approved of the job Trump was doing, while every Dem surveyed disapproved. His split with independents was 35-59.

Franklin said that’s a reflection of the coalition that elected Trump last year largely sticking behind him, while those “who opposed him are bitterly opposed to him.”

“At least at this stage of the administration, people who chose their sides last fall in the presidential race are seeing no reason to change their sides. And if anything, they’re gripping those potions even more strongly,” Franklin said.

The poll also found:

  • 57% believe Trump’s policies will increase inflation, while 30% said they will decrease it.
  • 55% said tariffs will hurt the economy, while 33% said they will help.
  • 38% said Republicans are to blame for the federal government shutdown, while 33% said Dems and 28% said both parties.

The poll of 846 registered voters was conducted Oct. 15-22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. The sample included 641 respondents selected from the state’s voter registration list and 205 from an online panel invited to take part in the survey. The poll included 723 respondents completing it online and 123 via telephone.

The partisan makeup of the sample was 36% Republican, 32% Dem and 33% independent. Throughout 2024, the avenger was 33% Republican, 31% Dem and 36% independent.

Nate Silver rates Marquette an A/B pollster.

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