Panelists at a WisPolitics-State Affairs polling summit sought to debunk misconceptions about the rural voter and weighed in on President Donald Trump’s gains in rural Wisconsin last year.
Pollsters Ryan Tyson, an expert on the Trump voter who has worked for conservative groups, and Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin spoke at the Sept. 25 event along with GOP strategist and “Land Rich, Cash Poor” author Brian Reisinger and Rust Belt Rising Executive Director and former Dem state Rep. Katrina Shankland.
Franklin said one of the biggest misconceptions is that rural parts of the state are “homogenous.”
“The farmsteads that still exist throughout these rural areas are unique in their own economic situations, the kind of people that work on them, but there’s really a lot of heterogeneity in the area,” he said.
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Shankland, who ran an unsuccessful campaign for the 3rd CD last year, argued rural voters aren’t “monolithic” and that people tend to be more motivated by specific issues that apply to them than adhering to party lines.
“Especially when I’ve been out knocking doors in my previous district, but also many other competitive districts in the state, you will frequently hear repeatedly from different rural voters, ‘I vote for the person, not the party, and I am going to, whoever’s selling me the best things that are good for me is what I’m going to go for,’” Shankland said. “So there’s less of that rigid adherence to ideology that I think is often, especially in the national media, depicted as almost a fervor of our culture wars.”
Tyson spoke from the perspective of the rural south.
“I think the misconception is we’re all racists. That’s not true. I’m just being blunt. I think, you know, some of the greatest people in the world live in rural areas, and there’s just all these awful misconceptions about people,” he said.
Reisinger said he thinks the largest misconception about rural voters is that they’re “all pissed off.”
“It pisses me off, to be honest with you,” Reisinger said to laughs from audience members. “There’s frustration, but it goes back to economic anxiety and other types of frustrations. But you’re not going home to Sauk County and people are screaming at you when you get across the Dane County border – sometimes it’s the other way around.”
He said there’s an “economic angst” among rural voters, adding there’s “an economic status quo that has left the rural voter behind.”
Asked about Trump surpassing previous margins in the 2024 election in rural counties in Wisconsin, Franklin pointed to former President Joe Biden.
“I think a failed presidency gives a real boost to the out party, and I, not trying to take anything away from Donald Trump or other economic forces, but I do think … too little credit is given to how people feel about the incumbent administration,” Franklin said.
Meanwhile, Reisinger argued inflation “drove a ton of this.”
He argued the economic impact was “kind of like that cake had been baked in there, and then there was a whole bunch of frosting put on that by the Biden administration in the last couple years.”
Shankland argued turnout for Democrats in urban areas was an important factor, and the total turnout for each party should be considered.
“Now if you don’t believe me, ask Republicans how they feel about spring elections right now,” she said. “They don’t have a great track record in Wisconsin, and it’s because Democrats have … been beating them at the turnout game in spring elections, whereas when Trump is on the ballot, that’s where they can really maximize.”
Shankland also weighed in on the upcoming 2026 election with U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Prairie du Chien, up for reelection. Shankland lost the Dem primary in the 3rd CD last year. She argued Van Orden is counting on associating himself with Trump to turn out Trump voters.
“But ask Republicans how many people came out last year in 2024 to vote for just Trump and they didn’t vote all the way down the ticket,” she said. “And it’s even harder in a midterm when your incumbent candidate is on Twitter what appears to be 20 hours a day insulting his own constituents and doxing them.”
Franklin said there will be “a bit of an advantage” for Dems next year without Trump on the ballot, “but I wouldn’t think of it as the magic bullet that gives any confidence about who’s going to win.”
Watch the event here.
