The latest Marquette University Law School Poll shows Francesca Hong leading the Democratic primary field, though most primary voters remain undecided.

But Hong, a Madison assemblywoman, polled less favorably in a head-to-head matchup with likely GOP nominee Tom Tiffany compared to Dem rival Mandela Barnes, the former lt. gov. and 2022 U.S. Senate nominee. The poll suggests a close race regardless of who the Democratic nominee is in November.

“You should absolutely look at these numbers as where we stood last week, and there’s plenty of room for change between now (and the primary). If nothing else, the events of the last week should convince everybody that campaigns matter and events happen during campaigns,” said poll Director Charles Franklin.

The poll was conducted July 8-16 by sampling 838 registered voters. The margin of error was 4.5%. 

The poll didn’t include Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who suspended his campaign July 8 before reentering the race July 18. Additionally, the polling took place before Lt. Sara Rodriguez ended her campaign July 17. 

Franklin announced that another poll, only focused on the gubernatorial Democratic primary race, will be released next Wednesday. The survey period will take place beginning yesterday through Monday.

The sample specifically for the Democratic primary was 430 registered voters, with a margin of error of 6.1%.

The largest swath of voters, 45%, said they were still undecided on who to vote for in the Aug. 11 primary.

Among registered voters, 26% supported Hong, followed by 15% for Barnes, 11% for Rodriguez, 2% for former DOA Secretary Joel Brennan and 1% for Kelda Roys, a Madison state senator.

The poll also asked participants for their second choice in the primary. When adjusted for Rodriguez’s supporters’ second choice candidate, Hong still led the pack at 27%, Barnes followed with 18%, Brennan at 5% and Roys at 2%.

“If there was an expectation that her dropping out would dramatically change the race, that has to assume that she was getting a really big share of the vote, and as you can see from our data, at least, she wasn’t,” Franklin said on Rodriguez’s exit.

When registered voters were asked to choose between Tiffany and a Democratic nominee in the November election, Barnes was the only Dem with an advantage over the GOP congressman. 

Barnes led at 44% compared to Tiffany’s 40%, with 16% undecided. Hong polled at 40% to Tiffany’s 43%, with 17% undecided. Brennan came in at 39% to Tiffany’s 42% with 19% undecided. Roys had 38% with Tiffany at 42% and 21% undecided. Rodriguez also had a slight lead over Tiffany at 42% to 41%.

Additionally, the same question was asked to a group of 695 likely voters, with a margin of error of 6.5%. Barnes still had an advantage in a head-to-head matchup with Tiffany at 47% to 42%, respectively. Rodriguez was also polled to beat Tiffany at 47% to 43%.

Hong and Tiffany were both at 44%, with 11% of voters undecided. Tiffany had a slight edge over Brennan at 44% to 43%, with 13% undecided. Tiffany also beat Roys 44% to 42%, with 14% undecided. 

“The uncertainty about how these races shape up is just gigantic, and so it may be that Tom Tiffany runs away with this, no matter who the opponent is. It may be that the Democrat runs away, no matter who the Democrat is. But what this does show you is, as we like to do in Wisconsin, a fairly tight race, a little bit of variation from candidate to candidate, but not a huge amount,” Franklin said.