A majority of Wisconsin voters remained undecided about the state’s Supreme Court race just a couple of weeks before the election, according to the latest Marquette University Law School Poll.

Still, Director Charles Franklin noted Dem voters are more likely to say they are absolutely certain to vote April 7, to express enthusiasm about casting their ballot and that the outcome of the Supreme Court race is very important to them.

Franklin says the gap for those certain to vote is “really kind of striking” and a big advantage for Dems.

Among registered voters, 23% said they backed liberal 4th District Court of Appeals Judge Chris Taylor. Meanwhile 17% supported conservative 2nd District Court of Appeals Judge Maria Lazar and 53% were undecided. A month ago, 66% of registered voters were undecided in that race.

Among likely voters, 30% backed Taylor, while 22% supported Lazar with 46% undecided. A month ago, 62% of those voters hadn’t made up their mind in the race.

Franklin said other results in the poll suggest an advantage for Dems heading into April 7.

That includes:

  • While 66% of voters overall say they absolutely will vote April 7, 77% of Dems are sure they’ll turn out, compared to 59% of Republicans and 53% of independents. In February, that turnout advantage for Dems over Republicans was 73-67.
  • 38% of voters say they’re enthusiastic about voting, with 51% of Dems saying that, compared to 32% of Republicans and 19% of independents.
  • 51% of all voters say the outcome of the race is very important to them, with 65% of Dems saying that, compared to 46% of Republicans and 24% of independents.

“This is where Democrats could potentially expand the gap if people who are less engaged in the election in a less visible campaign turn out less and we actually see turnout rates go down,” Franklin said.

Trump’s net approval hits all-time low in Wisconsin

President Donald Trump’s net approval rating hit this month an all-time low among Wisconsin voters in the Marquette poll.

Forty-two percent of registered voters approved of the job Trump is doing, while 56% disapproved for a net rating of minus 14. His previous low was a minus 12 in September 2018 during his first term, and his split was 48-51 in February 2025, shortly after he took office for his second term.

Franklin noted Trump during his first term had job approval numbers below 42%, but that was largely early in his term while voters were still making up their minds about him. In the first two Marquette polls of 2017, Trump’s splits were 41-47 and 41-51.

Franklin called it “steady slippage” for Trump over his second term rather than a cratering. 

“Cratering to me is an adjective to me that you use when approval drops seven points in a month, and we haven’t seen anything like that in our polling,” Franklin said.

The latest slip comes as 84% of Republicans say they approve of the job Trump is doing, down from 91% last month. Meanwhile, 66% of independents disapprove of the job Trump is doing, with 26% approving. 

On other issues:

  • 59% said they believe Trump’s policies will increase inflation, while 28% said they will decrease it. Two-thirds of independents believe Trump’s policies will increase inflation.
  • 39% approved of the attacks on Iran, while 61% disapproved. That includes 73% of independents who disapproved.
  • 30% said tariffs help the U.S. economy, while 53% said they hurt it.

Little movement in governor’s race

The poll also found little movement in the gubernatorial primaries compared to February.

Forty percent of those who said they plan to vote in the GOP primary backed U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, of Minocqua, while 6% backed Andy Manske, a medical services technician, and 54% hadn’t made up their minds.

Last month, Tiffany was at 35%, while Manske was at 2%.

Among Dems, 14% supported state Rep. Francesca Hong, of Madison, while 11% supported former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Milwaukee County Exec David Crowley and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez were at 3% each, and no one else in the field cracked that mark.

A month ago, Hong was at 11%, while Barnes was at 10%. The movement was well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 6.7 percentage points for the Dem primary.

Barnes and Tiffany are the best-known candidates among all registered voters.

Half have an opinion of Tiffany, with 26% having a favorable impression and 24% an unfavorable one. Meanwhile, 56% have an opinion of Barnes, who was lieutenant governor from 2019-2023, with 25% having a favorable view of him and 31% an unfavorable one.

Rodriguez was the next best-known guv candidate, with 16% of voters having a favorable view of her and 16% having a negative one.

Franklin noted Hong has topped the Dem field in three straight Marquette polls.

“This race just isn’t developing at this point,” Franklin said. “I don’t think there’s any reason to think it’s going to dramatically change next week.”

In the AG’s race, 25% of voters had a favorable impression of Dem incumbent Josh Kaul, while 18% had a negative one. GOP candidate Eric Toney, the Fond du Lac DA who lost to Kaul in 2022, had a 12-11 fav-unfav split.

The poll of 850 registered voters was conducted March 11-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The sample included 597 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.

The sample of GOP primary voters was 396, and the questions posted to them had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.3 percentage points. It also included 393 Dem primary voters, and the margin of error for the questions asked of them was plus or minus 6.7 percentage points.

The survey included 619 respondents selected from the state’s voter registration list and 231 from the SSRS Opinion Panel, which is drawn from postal addresses across Wisconsin.

The partisan makeup of the sample was 36% Republican, 32% Dem and 32% independent, in line with recent averages for the survey.

Nate Silver rates Marquette the nation’s second-best pollster with an A/B rating.