Following Dem David Crowley’s “comeback” win and Republican Tom Tiffany’s “terrific” summer ad campaign, strategists and a top pollster discussed what it will take for each party to win the governorship this November.

At a WisPolitics-State Affairs virtual luncheon yesterday, Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork, Republican and Platform Communications founder Keith Gilkes and Marquette University Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin all agreed affordability and the economy will be a top issue for Wisconsin voters in the fall.

“I don’t see how either campaign gets away without talking a good bit about those broad economic and affordability issues, and how do they convince voters that they are A, concerned about those things, and B, what do they do in state policy to try to affect that,” Franklin said.

Gilkes said Tiffany could be “an exception to the rule” where the party that holds the presidency often loses in midterm elections. He said that he doesn’t think Tiffany’s federal policymaking and President Donald Trump’s endorsement would inhibit his victory in November given that there isn’t a U.S. Senate race along with the governor’s race to raise all those federal issues.

“With governor, what (voters) want to know is they like you, they understand you, they feel like they can have a beer with you. And I think that’s an entirely different job interview than if you’re running for Congress or U.S. Senate. … My view of it is that the Tiffany campaign has done a great job of showing who Tom is as a person, making him relatable,” Gilkes said.

Gilkes said for Tiffany’s campaign it’s all about “getting back to basics” and establishing a narrative for himself and his opponent, something he argues has already been accomplished through a series of TV ad buys this summer.

Franklin said Tiffany’s ads helped set his image, but they largely avoided specific policy positions.

“I think the ad campaign for Tiffany over the summer was terrific in terms of softening his image. He said very little about issues, but he stressed common sense, which is a good way to say `I’m not telling you anything about my policies, but they’re going to be common sense,’” Franklin said.

Gilkes said Republicans will likely point to property and sales tax increases under Crowley’s time as Milwaukee County executive as well as a lapse in a healthcare contract for county employees earlier this year.

Bjork, however, said there “couldn’t be a starker contrast” between Crowley and Tiffany. She referenced Tiffany’s voting record in Congress, said he supported a national abortion ban and that he’s “running up a steep hill with the Trump anvil around his neck.”

In the latest Marquette University Law School Poll just 39% of Wisconsin voters surveyed had a favorable view of Trump.

“I do think that part of the big motivating factor here is who Tom Tiffany is. Democrats are scared of him in terms of what Wisconsin would be like if he ended up being our governor. So that is a very big motivator for Democrats is to try to make sure that we’re doing everything that we can to keep this seat in Democratic hands,” Bjork said, referencing two-term Gov. Tony Evers.

Bjork said Crowley needs to win in suburbs throughout the state and limit Republican margins in small towns and rural parts of the state to win the general election. She also stressed the importance of embracing backers of Francesca Hong and other Dem primary candidates, a sentiment echoed by Franklin. 

Crowley beat Hong, a state rep from Madison, by less than a percentage point. Bjork credited Hong for not forcing a recount and for signaling her early cooperation by doing a unity breakfast this week.

“The unity tour and the things that Fran Hong talked about on election night and the day after all point to genuine support on her part. … I think that’s pretty important. I think the contrast between Crowley and Tiffany will also mean that those folks have a hard time sitting on the sidelines,” Franklin said.