The debate between panelists at a WisPolitics-State Affairs luncheon on the future of the state Legislature ultimately came down to one question: Is it 2006 or 2010 again?

Former Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Chvala saw a reversal of the red wave that brought a GOP trifecta and handed control of the Legislature to Republicans for the following 16 years.

“I have never seen an election where the problems that people are worried about were driven so directly by one party,” Chvala said during yesterday’s event, rattling off gas prices, the Iran War, tariffs, and healthcare costs. “My gosh, folks, everything that people are upset about is directly because of Donald Trump.”

He was so confident in this assessment that he even predicted the ouster of U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Janesville, from his 1st CD seat, even though that district hasn’t elected a Democrat since 1992.

For fellow WisOpinion Insider and former GOP Assembly Speaker Scott Jensen, it was 2006, when national discontent over an unpopular president and an unpopular war pushed Republicans out of the Senate but left the GOP with a toehold in the Legislature. 

“It’s important to know that voters are frustrated with both parties. If you ask people about both parties, the image of both parties are underwater. People think both parties are worthless,” Jensen said. 

But the state Senate, panelists seemed to agree, is destined to go for the Democrats this fall.

Redistricting expert and former GOP lawmaker Joe Handrick noted that all but one of the Senate’s most competitive four seats were open or occupied by a Democrat.

“It’s one thing for an incumbent to swim upstream. It’s entirely different with an open seat and a blue year to swim upstream,” Handrick said.  

Debate on the Senate focused on the future of Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green.

Jensen predicted spending in the matchup between Marklein and Dem Rep. Jenna Jacobson of Oregon could surpass $10 million. WisPolitics tallied a record-setting $11.6 million that was spent in 2024 on Wisconsin’s 8th SD as Dem Jodi Habush Sinykin, of Whitefish Bay, beat then-GOP Sen. Duey Stroebel, of Saukville.

Progressive strategist Victoria Stewart, who once managed a race in Marklein’s district, called him an “incredibly hard worker” and noted his status as a co-chair of the powerful Joint Finance Committee.  

“He was everywhere all the time, and we hear this from everyone,” she said, adding, “He also has the opportunity to raise a ton of money, and they are going all in to make sure that they are protecting one of their most powerful members right now.” 

Stewart and Chvala also pegged the 25th SD in the state’s northwest corner as an opportunity for a surprise Dem pickup. Bayfield County Supv. Charly Ray faces former Assembly lawmaker Erik Severson. 

Panelists were more bearish on Dem chances in the Assembly, which now has a 54-45 GOP majority.

While all four panelists predicted the party would pick up seats, only Chvala predicted an outright majority. Handrick noted incumbent Republicans in that chamber had tended to outrun the top of the ticket going back to 2018. 

Jensen cited Assembly Republicans’ immense spending advantage, which Stewart dismissed as coming from a “place of fear,” saying running up campaign spending was “not the only way to win elections.” 

Handrick and Jensen both pegged Rep. Ben Franklin, R-De Pere, as the Assembly’s most vulnerable Republican, while Stewart picked a perennial target in Marklein’s district — Rep. Todd Novak of Dodgeville. 

On the other hand, Handrick, Jensen and Chvala agreed Rep. Ryan Spaude of Ashwaubenon was the most endangered Democratic incumbent, though Chvala noted the freshman lawmaker had won his first race in a year that Donald Trump had won Wisconsin. 

Stewart did not anticipate any Republican pickups in the Assembly but predicted Democrats would pick up only three seats, two shy of a majority. 

Watch the WisPolitics-State Affairs luncheon here.