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TABLE OF CONTENTS


QUOTES OF THE WEEK

You know as a conservative, I’m a believer in following the plain text of the Constitution and I think in this case the 14th Amendment is pretty clear, and that would involve a very, very lengthy constitutional process.
– House Speaker Paul Ryan, saying President Trump couldn’t use an executive order to end birthright citizenship for children of non-citizens born in the U.S. But he said he agreed with the president on the need to curb illegal immigration.

Paul Ryan should be focusing on holding the Majority rather than giving his opinions on Birthright Citizenship, something he knows nothing about! Our new Republican Majority will work on this, Closing the Immigration Loopholes and Securing our Border!
– A tweet from Trump in response.

I know we can’t do it through an executive order without a court challenge, but I think it makes sense to have the discussion.
– Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, who pointed to birthright citizenship as an incentive for people to enter the country illegally.

Illegal immigrants are taking advantage of America’s generosity, and I applaud President Trump’s courageous leadership to fix our immigration crisis, which Senator Baldwin has failed to fix and has resulted in free education and health care benefits for illegal immigrants.
– Republican U.S. Senate candidate Leah Vukmir backing Trump’s call to end birthright citizenship.

I disagree with the president, and I think what we really need to do is fix our broken immigration system and strengthen our border through comprehensive immigration reform.
– Dem U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

No matter what happens in the courts or in the Congress, in Wisconsin we will codify that, the exact same language that’s in the Affordable Care Act. We’ll make sure that everyone living with a pre-existing condition is covered here in the state.
– Republican Gov. Scott Walker vowing to protect coverage of pre-existing conditions. Dem guv candidate Tony Evers knocked Walker for his opposition to the ACA and again pledged to safeguard pre-existing conditions, adding “Wisconsinites trust me on this issue.”

He is a liar … I’m planning to raise no taxes.
– Evers in an interview with the Washington Post in response to Walker saying his administration would raise taxes. Evers has previously said “everything’s on the table” in terms of a gas tax increase, and he has committed to cutting taxes for middle class by rolling back the manufacturing and agriculture credit to cap it at the first $300,000 of income for applicants. See the Washington Post report: ” >https://wapo.st/2SGBJPZ

This is really bigger than politics, this election. There’s something different. I think we’re in a battle for America’s soul, where we are as a country.
– Former Vice-President Joe Biden stumping for Democrats at UW-Madison.

We’re in this fight because we believe government ought to work for everyone else. And that’s why I’m so happy to be here with Tammy, because Tammy is in that fight all the way.
– U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., stumping for Baldwin at Madison’s Monona Terrace.

*See coverage from today’s event in the Election Blog:
https://www.wispolitics.com/2018/warren-slams-gop-policies-praises-baldwin-at-madison-rally/

POLITICAL STOCK REPORT
–A collection of insider opinion–
(Oct. 27-Nov. 2, 2018)

Rising

Tammy Baldwin: The Marquette University Law School’s August poll put GOP challenger Leah Vukmir within striking distance of the Madison Dem. But since then, nearly every indicator — from fundraising to the national perception of Wisconsin’s race — has shown few signs the race is truly competitive. And that makes Baldwin the overwhelming insiders’ favorite going into Election Day. Underscoring this is the latest Marquette poll, which has Baldwin up 54-43 and Vukmir upside down with likely voters as just 33 percent have a favorable view of her, while 43 percent have an unfavorable one. It’s also the third straight poll showing Baldwin up by double digits. Insiders point to several obstacles for Vukmir. But it all starts with money. Since the last months of 2012, Baldwin had raised $31.1 million through mid-October. That’s already $6 million more than Russ Feingold pulled in for the 2016 race and almost $10 million more than U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Oshkosh, pulled in as he successfully beat back the challenge. And Baldwin has used that money to her advantage, insiders say, keeping up a steady drumbeat against Vukmir on health care, picking apart her legislative record and successfully putting her on the defensive over protections for those with pre-existing conditions. Baldwin is by no means unique in using that issue against a Republican opponent. But she has been extraordinarily successful in making it stick, election watchers say. Vukmir, R-Brookfield, has returned fire on a series of issues, charging Baldwin’s Medicare-for-all would bankrupt the country and destroy private insurance. Vukmir has also hit Baldwin on the Tomah VA scandal and derided her as a radical. But she’s had a much smaller megaphone to lob those charges, insiders say. And in the waning days, Vukmir has ramped up the rhetoric, joining Donald Trump in suggesting there may be terrorists in the migrant caravan headed to the U.S., re-tweeting the president’s web video on immigration that has been denounced by some Republicans and calling Baldwin “Princess Painkiller” over the Tomah VA. Some Dems see it as a candidate determined to go out taking wildly inappropriate swings at Baldwin, consequences be damned. Others note that as much as the Senate race has been overshadowed by other campaigns, Vukmir has to stir things up just to get attention, particularly when she doesn’t have the money to amplify her messages. Vukmir also was a financial underdog in the GOP primary. But she was able to best Kevin Nicholson, in part, because of the network she’d built up in GOP voter-rich southeastern Wisconsin through her years in the Legislature. Add in having the state GOP’s infrastructure behind her, it was enough to overcome the financial disparity. But while that formula can work in a primary, it doesn’t have the same ceiling in a contested statewide contest, insiders say. That’s particularly true with national groups largely staying away from the Wisconsin race, which has now dropped off many top 10 lists for seats in play. Already some are questioning Vukmir’s messaging strategy in the general election. Cutting an ad with a handgun on the table may work in a primary, but there needs to be a general election message that appeals to those in the middle, some argue. Some Republicans argue the results will be closer than some think because the state is just too divided and the guv’s race too close to produce that many ticket splitters. But Marquette Poll Director Charles Franklin says of Baldwin’s 54 percent in the latest survey, 6.3 percentage points of that is from those who say they support Gov. Scott Walker, while another 2.1 percentage points are from those supporting Libertarian Phil Anderson. Meanwhile, of Vukmir’s 43 percent, just 1.9 percentage points of that came from Evers supporters. What’s more, insiders say polling at the legislative level has consistently shown Baldwin leading in key races, but Walker up as well. The thing to watch, some add, is just how many end up splitting their ticket on Election Day and if Baldwin can hit a number that helps pull Dem guv nominee Tony Evers across the finish line.

House fundraising: The slate of Wisconsin candidates running for House this year raised 43 percent more than their 2014 counterparts, a WisPolitics.com check finds. In all, the 15 major party, general election candidates running for the chamber this year pulled in a combined $16 million from January 2018 through the pre-general period. That figure in 2014 was $11.2 million for 16 different candidates. Topping the list this year is first-time House candidate Dem Randy Bryce, who logged nearly $5.3 million in receipts over the past 10 months. Back in 2014, the House fundraising leader was Speaker Paul Ryan, who listed $4.8 million in receipts from January through mid-October of that year. While House GOP candidates in 2014 outraised their Dem counterparts nearly 3-to-1, Dems have the upper hand this year, logging a combined $9.8 million raised to Republicans’ $6.2 million. Individual candidates from both parties, meanwhile, are also putting up huge fundraising totals compared to their 2014 counterparts. This year so far, seven House candidates have raised more than $1 million: Republicans Bryan Steil; U.S. Reps. Glenn Grothman, Sean Duffy and Mike Gallagher; and Dems Bryce, Dan Kohl and U.S. Rep. Ron Kind. In 2014, just three House candidates logged more than $1 million in receipts: Ryan, Kind and Duffy. With Ryan retiring, Duffy, Gallagher and Kind are proving the best fundraisers in the delegation. But none is expected to have competitive races this fall. Instead, the focus is all on the open 1st CD and the challenge Kohl is posing to Grothman. One firm says it has polling that shows the 6th CD race is within the margin for error. But its methodology leaves a little to be desired, and insiders generally don’t see that race as a true toss-up. If Kohl wins that race, insiders say, it means a blue tsunami had washed over Wisconsin, giving Dems the governor’s office, the state Senate and seats in the state Assembly no one dreamed were in play. Some believe Grothman could survive even if a moderate blue wave hit the state. It’s just hard to see that seat flipping, election watchers say. The 1st, meanwhile, is a little harder to read. Republicans generally express confidence that Steil will pull it out in a seat that President Trump won by 10 points just two years ago. Still, the amount of money poured into that race by independent groups is astounding for an open seat that leans Republican. While Dems argue that’s a sign it’s competitive, Republicans counter it’s been a necessity simply because of Bryce’s fundraising prowess and Steil’s late entry after Ryan announced his retirement. It’s winnable, some Dems argue, but it may take a surge of Dem voters to make it happen.

Big donors: When GOP lawmakers followed up a series of court rulings with an overhaul of campaign finance laws three years ago, Dems warned it would open the door to deep-pocketed donors playing a major role in campaigns going forward. Turns out, they were right on the money. The latest campaign finance reports show six donors combined to give the state GOP $4 million in the most recent reporting period, when the party turned around and gave Gov. Scott Walker’s campaign $3.5 million. The party then followed that up with more than $1.1 million in transfers in the days after the reporting period closed. Those top donors to the state GOP include: Beloit businesswoman Diane Hendricks, who gave the party $1.5 million, and Marlene Ricketts, the wife of T.D. Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, who donated $1 million. Meanwhile, Illinois businesswoman Elizabeth Uihlein gave $750,000, while her husband, Dick, chipped in $50,000. The Dem Party, meanwhile, had just two donors who made six-figure contributions: former U.S. Sen. Herb Kohl, D-Milwaukee, who contributed $350,000, and philanthropist Lynde Uihlein, who contributed $200,000. That $3.5 million boost the state GOP gave Walker helped him outraise Dem rival Tony Evers, who got $599,640 from the state Dem Party and $450,000 from running mate Mandela Barnes. The writing had been on the wall for weeks about what was coming as the race hit the homestretch, some note. WisPolitics.com reported in August that 29 donors between Jan. 1, 2015, and the end of July, had contributed a combined $3.3 million to the state GOP after maxing out to Walker. More than half of that came from just three contributors: Hendricks and the Uihleins. Wisconsin didn’t previously cap contributions to state parties. But an old restriction limiting donors to an aggregate of $10,000 in contributions to campaigns and committees per year acted as a de facto ceiling. That annual aggregate limit was thrown out by a federal court in September 2014; and when GOP lawmakers overhauled campaign finance laws a little more than a year later, they didn’t include any restrictions on the size of donations to political parties. Republicans who backed the change said it would make political parties stronger and bring such large donations out in the open rather than seeing them go to issue advocacy groups, which don’t have to disclose their donors. Dems, meanwhile, say the flood of money shows Republicans knew exactly what they were doing with the rewrite of finance laws. They also lament that some of their biggest donors simply aren’t comfortable writing checks that large, either because they find it unseemly or don’t want the exposure.

Mixed

Scott Walker: The cliche is as old as politics: It all comes down to turnout. But if the guv’s race is truly dead even, some argue, then there’s no better description of what will decide whether the guv earns a third term from voters. The latest Marquette University Law School Poll doesn’t just find the race between Walker and Dem state Superintendent Tony Evers is tied at 47 points apiece, but the exact same number of respondents backed the guv as did the challenger. Insiders also pour over other figures to divine any signs of what may turn the race in the end. Considering how well known Walker is, many believe it’s unlikely undecideds will break his way in the closing days. After eight years, what would finally win them over? Still, only 1 percent of respondents didn’t express a preference in the Marquette poll. Insiders also point to Evers leading with independents 49-42 as a good sign for the Dem, largely unchanged from 46-40 in early October. But that’s also down from a 20-point spread in September and 11 points in August. You can’t win Wisconsin if you’re losing independents, some say. What’s more the numbers on health care coverage and education — the top two issues for voters — are very much in Evers’ favor. And the Dem enthusiasm advantage continues with 81 percent saying they’re very enthusiastic to vote, compared to 74 percent of Republicans. Earlier in October, it was 76-70. Republicans, meanwhile, point to Walker’s job approval rating (50-47) and the right track-wrong number (54-42) as the key figures. Republicans say voters will figure out that they’re going to need to back Walker to keep it headed that way. Or maybe they won’t. Insiders on both sides say the electorate seems finicky this cycle, producing sometimes volatile survey results. What’s more, the impact of the national environment is still up in the air. Some have seen the immigrant caravan as a gift to Republicans, saying it goosed enthusiasm, particularly after the Kavanaugh confirmation fight. Meanwhile, President Trump’s numbers were getting better in various national surveys in recent weeks, but suddenly took a dip early this week in the Gallup Poll. Does that mean the red meat he’s been throwing the base on immigration isn’t helping? Walker also has proven he’s not immune to the GOP’s struggles with the pre-existing conditions issue. While his fans say Walker was smart to sense something was afoot with voters early and called on lawmakers to pass state protections back in the winter, others note he’s still trying to find an effective response on the campaign trail. Some of his backers try to downplay Walker’s new pledge to insert the exact same language from the Affordable Care Act into state law if needed; others see it as a sign he’s throwing anything at the wall to see what sticks. In the end, some say, dozens of little things could impact the final outcome, from a shift in the national mood to the state parties’ turnout operations, to which candidate is more effective in turning out their voters come Election Day. Meanwhile, a new poll out today from Emerson College has Evers up 51-46 and independents backing the state superintendent 51-40; both numbers are more favorable for the Dem nominee than the Marquette poll. The impact of the Senate race is also an open question. If Tammy Baldwin runs up a big score, would it be enough to produce an Evers win?

Brad Schimel: For weeks, insiders have said the GOP AG’s best bet against a possible blue wave hitting Wisconsin would be to carve out a unique brand that sets him apart from the general Republican ballot test. But with the race turning toward the final days, many insiders are convinced the match-up will ultimately mirror the guv’s contest with neither Schimel nor Dem challenger Josh Kaul particularly well known among voters. The latest Marquette University Law School Poll shows Schimel at 47 percent and Kaul at 45, a slight tightening from a 47-43 margin in early October and 48-41 in mid-September. The poll also finds 29 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of Schimel, while 25 percent have an unfavorable one. But that’s gangbusters compared to Kaul’s 16-12 spread. Insiders say that underscores what will be a key question should Kaul lose: Did he wait too long to go up on the air? Even with a blue wave coming, just having a D behind your name in a race like this isn’t enough, some say. But Kaul’s campaign took the calculated risk of putting all of its TV up late, when voters are typically starting to pay attention. But that also is a time when it’s harder to break through all the clutter on the air, and there was less time for Kaul to build a foundation of name ID before the airwaves got cluttered. Unless voters take the time to get real familiar with him over the final few days, that puts Kaul even more at the mercy of the generic ballot test, some say. Insiders scrutinize the factors to watch. Schimel has been playing up his bipartisan support even as insiders view him as a partisan AG. Some voters tend to favor Republicans on law-and-order issues, and that might help him pick up a point compared to what Walker does, some say. Dems also worry low-information voters who don’t like Walker or Trump may skip over the AG’s race and other contests on the ballot, which starts with the gubernatorial campaign and works its way through the other state constitutional offices before the U.S. Senate race. Evers may have to win by a few points for Kaul to pull out a victory, some election watchers suggest.

Paul Ryan: Their relationship comes full circle — and just in time for another Election Day. It’s not nearly the falling out that Donald Trump and the House speaker had in 2016, when the Janesville Republican disinvited the GOP presidential nominee from a Wisconsin campaign rally and told his colleagues he would no longer defend the party’s standard bearer. But after two years of largely playing nice and finding a way to work together, insiders are reminded that no matter how much people try to kowtow to the president, he’ll show no restraint in smacking them down if they step out of line. After a lengthy period of calm in their relationship, Trump slams Ryan after the speaker questioned his plan to end birthright citizenship via executive order. Ryan, R-Janesville, said in an interview with a radio station, “You cannot end birthright citizenship with an executive order. We didn’t like it when Obama tried changing immigration laws via executive action, and obviously as conservatives, we believe in the Constitution.” That drew Trump’s ire as he took to Twitter, “Paul Ryan should be focusing on holding the Majority rather than giving his opinions on Birthright Citizenship, something he knows nothing about! Our new Republican Majority will work on this, Closing the Immigration Loopholes and Securing our Border!” A spokeswoman for Ryan declined comment. But some Republicans are flabbergasted at the president’s broadside. For one, they say, Ryan is right and other conservatives should be standing up to say the same thing. Two, considering the millions of dollars Ryan has raised in a bid to save the GOP House majority, it’s rich to have the president suggesting his focus has strayed. While some Republicans side with Ryan, Dems are less forgiving. After enabling Trump for much of the past two years, he decides to take a stand now? Trump said in an October interview he won’t take the blame if the House flips. But insiders have a pretty good guess where he’ll point the finger if it does.

Candidate debt: The former Dem guv candidates haven’t made much progress in paying down their collective $576,157 in personal debt over the last couple months, the latest fundraising reports show. In all, eight of the nine — everyone but state firefighters union head Mahlon Mitchell — has an outstanding loan on the books, ranging from Kenosha attorney Josh Pade’s $2,250 to state Rep. Dana Wachs’ $271,000, which he gave the campaign before dropping out of the race in June. Only former state Rep. Kelda Roys made a dent in her debt over the pre-election period, paying off $10,000 and dropping her outstanding loan balance to $163,657. That personal money included a $255,000 loan June 30, just after taking out a $235,000 home equity loan on her house in Madison. But insiders are left scratching their heads over a fundraising appeal the Madison Dem makes in the final 14 days of the general election campaign, where she asks supporters to chip in and help pay off her “significant” campaign debt. She writes in the email — sent the same day she filed her campaign finance report with the Ethics Commission — that while she’s “still working hard to advance our shared progressive values,” it “takes time and money to travel and campaign for our Democratic ticket.” The request galls Dems, who ask, how do you make a pitch like that in the closing days of a neck-and-neck guv race? It strikes insiders as tone-deaf and self-absorbed, particularly because Roys isn’t looking to pay back vendors, but herself. It also serves as a reminder for others that candidates considering self-funding should only give themselves what they’re prepared to lose.

BadgerCare requirements: The feds finally signed off on work requirements for some Medicaid recipients — though the announcement comes days before the election with the two guv candidates tied in the polls. But the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services also officially shoot down the state’s proposal to drug test those involved in the program. Gov. Scott Walker this week announces CMS has green-lighted Wisconsin’s request for changes to BadgerCare Plus. In addition to the work requirements for able-bodied childless adults between 19 and 49, the approved waiver request also includes a provision to institute a monthly premium of $8 a household for those childless adult recipients whose household incomes are between 50 and 100 percent of the federal poverty level. That requirement, Kids Forward Research Director Jon Peacock says, would make Wisconsin the first state to make someone below the federal poverty level’s eligibility for Medicaid contingent on paying a premium. As for the lack of a drug testing requirement, observers aren’t surprised to see that plan didn’t make the cut. That’s because reports from as early as mid-August noted the provision was in jeopardy. CMS instead opted to require recipients to complete a health and wellness survey that includes questions about drug use. DHS spokeswoman Julie Lund says there weren’t any “other major policy revisions in the final approval.” The waiver says responses to the questionnaire “will result in a referral for treatment, as applicable, but not impact an applicant’s Medicaid eligibility.” But Peacock raises concerns about recipients’ privacy, and says he fears the requirement will “vastly increase the administrative complexity” of the program. DHS’ Lund, though, notes employees are bound by state and federal privacy laws related to personal health information. And she adds staff have already considered administrative procedures related to enacting those policies in drafting the waiver proposal, saying details will be worked through in the coming months during the creation of the implementation plan. Meanwhile, a Politico report notes Wisconsin didn’t hold a formal event to announce CMS’ approval, unlike when the feds signed off on other work requirements for Indiana and Arkansas. But observers note Walker hasn’t been shying away from the announcement, pointing to his comments on Twitter and to reporters at various campaign stops. A Walker spokeswoman didn’t respond to questions about the lack of a formal event, instead saying the approval marks “a huge step forward in helping people on government assistance move from dependence to true independence.” Going forward, DHS says the changes CMS approved will take at least a year to go into effect. And Peacock says he “strongly expects” to see a legal challenge before long.

Falling

Corrections: Corrections: The numbers aren’t necessarily a surprise nor a welcome piece of news. The Wisconsin Policy Forum produces a report based on fresh numbers from the Department of Corrections that show Wisconsin’s prison population, at 23,687 in 2017, is the highest it’s ever been. And the DOC in its latest budget request estimates the population will increase to 25,000 by 2021. The prison population’s rate of growth has slowed to 2.3 percent compared to the previous year, down significantly from the steep growth experienced during the 1990s. The report notes the inmate population increased from 7,000 to 20,000 in that decade, which was an era of longer sentences and fewer early releases. In 2000, the roll-out of so-called truth-in-sentencing laws helped to extend those trends, leading to further population increases. Truth in sentencing ended the system of parole under which inmates could be released a quarter of the way through their sentence for good behavior and finish the rest on parole. Under the overhaul, however, inmates are required to serve their full sentence along with a term of extended supervision equal to at least a quarter of their prison time. If inmates violate rules of their supervision, they can be revoked and sent back to prison far longer than they would if they had violated under the system of parole. That’s because offenders, if they break the rules of their supervision, can be required to serve the entire length of their extended supervision instead of just the remainder, as was the case before 2000. The report argues additional time under extended supervision increases the likelihood of an offender breaking the rules and being sent back to prison, which in part explains why the growth in the prison population continues to rise. The figures from DOC come as gubernatorial candidates address prisons on the campaign trail. For Gov. Scott Walker, that meant signing a bill into law earlier this year to overhaul the state’s youth prison system, but he has balked at undertaking an overhaul to adult corrections. Meanwhile, Dem challenger Tony Evers has touted cutting the prison population in half. But that could prove difficult, as the report underscores the fact 66 percent of the inmate population is serving for a violent crime, up from 59 percent in 2006. At the same time, the share of the population serving for drug offenses has declined from 15 percent to 11 percent over the same time frame. Meanwhile, the prison population figures are released as DOC requests a $149 million bump in funding over the next biennium, in part to address the increase in inmates. Insiders say that request could likely be approved no matter who’s governor, as it’s hard to say no to corrections. But expect the approval to come quietly, they say, as it’s an agency whose massive funding allocation — $2.47 billion in state funds over the current biennium — is best kept out of the limelight for optics’ sake. While some may balk at a $149 million ask, some believe the agency could end up receiving more funding after the initial budget approval through an emergency request or request to reallocate funding. If lawmakers are really serious about addressing the rising number of prisoners and accompanying state funding allocation, insiders say an overhaul of revocations might be the place to start. As the report notes, understanding and addressing why so many offenders are failing to meet their terms of supervision and in turn, being sent back to prison, might go a long way toward finally reversing current population trends.

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Nov. 8: WisPolitics.com Post-Election Party in Madison

Join WisPolitics.com for a post-election party running from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Thursday Nov. 8 at the Madison Club.

This bipartisan gathering will help the victors celebrate and the losers cope as the Wisconsin political community transitions into the holiday season and the next legislative session.

The party is free to WisPolitics.com subscribers and members. Others pay a fee of$30 each.

Sponsors include:
– The travel app AMUZ. Explore Wisconsin and the world with AMUZ.

– The Wisconsin Counties Association.

Special guests include:

-Gov. Scott Walker (invited) and state Schools Superintendent Tony Evers (invited)

-Katie Harbath, Global Politics and Government Outreach Director at Facebook, a UW-Madison graduate and a member of the Center for Journalism Ethics advisory board at UW who previously worked in national Republican politics.

-Kathleen Bartzen Culver, director of CJE, who will introduce Ms. Harbath.

-Political strategists Tanya Bjork on the Democratic side and Michelle Litjens on the Republican side.

-And the WisOpinion Insiders, former legislative leaders Scott Jensen and Chuck Chvala.

-Plus an appearance by NPR’s David Folkenflik.

For registration and more information, visit: https://www.wispolitics.com/2018/nov-8-wispolitics-com-post-election-party-in-madison/

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MONEY, POSSIBLE WAVE WILL IMPACT LEGGIE RACES

Waves break late. And money matters.

Both adages could be a factor in how legislative races play out Tuesday with control of the state Senate in play, but the Assembly safely in GOP hands barring a blue tsunami.

In the Senate, money hasn’t been an issue for either side. But the size of any wave is important, because the races are generally playing out on traditionally GOP turf. To have a shot at taking back control of the Senate, now in GOP hands at 18-15, Dems need to flip two seats. The 17th in southwestern Wisconsin has long been a target. But where can Dems find a second one?

In the Assembly, Republicans not only have a 64-35 majority — their largest since the 1950s — but an advantage on the money front as well. Insiders have long suspected Dem money would flow to the guv and state Senate campaigns first, because of the party’s chances for gains there. That means some Assembly Dem candidates may have to rely on a potential wave to get them across the finish line.

Meanwhile, GOP groups have expanded the list of seats into which they’re putting resources. That’s a sign to some that — flush with cash — they’re trying to make some insurance plays against the party’s weakness in suburban areas.

And if there’s a Dem wave, that means there will be a surprise. Figuring out which race that could be, though, can be a challenge. But many election watchers say keep an eye on the Milwaukee suburbs.

Here’s a final WisPolitics.com look at some of the key legislative races to watch Tuesday. All totals for independent expenditures include those reported to the Ethics Commission between Aug. 15 and this morning. Those figures don’t include issue ads, which aren’t reported to the state:

Senate

1st

Candidates: Sen. Caleb Frostman, D-Sturgeon Bay, vs. state Rep. Andre Jacque, R-De Pere.

Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Frostman $672,508 raised, $630,809 spent; Jacque $464,596 raised, $454,153 spent.

IE spending:
Pro-Frostman $603,243, Anti-Jacque $148,381; total $751,624
Pro-Jacque $36,869; anti-Frostman $564,851; total $601,719

Analysis: Can Jacque match Gov. Scott Walker’s numbers on Election Day? The guv is expected to win the GOP-leaning district. If Jacque can get near what Walker pulls in, he has a shot. Even some Republicans see Frostman as the better candidate. But that can only do so much in a district if the gap at the top is too large to overcome.

Candidate ads:
Frostman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hm15lzc65bA&feature=youtu.be
Jacque: https://vimeo.com/293171053/6d486c0c7f

5th

Candidates: Dem Julie Henszey vs. Rep. Dale Kooyenga, R-Brookfield.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Kooyenga $334,021 raised, $545,291 spent; Henszey $249,979 raised, $171,360 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Kooyenga $52,638, anti-Henszey $40,958; total $93,596.
Pro-Henszey $250,974, anti-Kooyenga $140,305; total $391,279

Analysis: The district, being vacated by Republican Leah Vukmir, has been reliably red for some time. But it’s also a good example of the suburban district apparently turning away from Republicans with Donald Trump as the party’s standard bearer. Kooyenga also has been hit hard in mail and over the airwaves that he was drunk on the Assembly floor and stole a sign from a protestor. Will those ads take their toll, or will they backfire? Some look at the district’s past performance and believe it will come home for Republicans in the end, but they won’t rule out the possibility of a Dem win.

Candidate ads:
Henszey: https://www.facebook.com/julieforwi/videos/493316397847452/

17th

Candidates: Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green, vs. Dem Kriss Marion.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Marklein $591,003 raised, $815,442 spent; Marion $481,044 raised, $447,587 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Marklein $27,841.51, anti-Marion $565,100.19; total $592,942.
Pro-Marion $516,669.01, anti-Marklein $213,347.03; total $730,016.

Analysis: The dynamic in this race hasn’t changed one bit. Can Marklein overcome what is expected to be a Dem advantage at the top of the ticket? He has outperformed the top of the ticket before, has been a fundraising machine, and has a reputation for his work on the doors. But if there’s truly a blue wave, it may not matter. This is also a district where the IE spending doesn’t tell the whole story with groups such as the Greater Wisconsin Committee running TV hitting Marklein.

Candidate ads:
Marklein: https://vimeo.com/291539917/0bede3e3de; https://vimeo.com/295440718/9549bac515
Marion: https://www.facebook.com/KrissForWisconsinStateSenate/videos/258647781504805/

19th

Candidates: Sen. Roger Roth, R-Appleton, vs. Dem Lee Snodgrass.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Snodgrass $359,772 raised, $249,347 spent; Roth $262,146 raised, $245,458 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Roth $208,850; total $208,850.
Pro-Snodgrass $222,453, anti-Roth $188,273; total $410,726

Analysis: The challenge for Dems wanting to take back control of the Senate has always been to hold the 1st, flip the 17th and then find a second seat to turn blue. Some have targeted this one, even though it’s long been in GOP hands. The Kimberly-Clark issue has been a wild card here, and Greater Wisconsin hit Roth in the closing days for supporting Foxconn but not being able to get his GOP colleagues to deliver on a package for the company in the Fox Valley. Republicans, though, generally feel good about Roth’s chances.

Candidate ads:
Roth: https://vimeo.com/293180475/d62fd57b5a

23rd

Candidates: Rep. Kathy Bernier, R-Lake Hallie, vs. Dem Chris Kapsner.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Bernier $425,531 raised, $414,408 spent; Kapsner $161,459 raised, $118,116 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Bernier $34,065, anti-Kapsner $245,967; total $280,033.
Pro-Kapsner $111,378,anti-Bernier $7,686; total $119,064.

Analysis: This race for the seat being vacated by Republican Terry Moulton was on the map to start the year. But it has quickly fallen off the radar. GOP groups went up hard and early to hit Kapsner with the hopes of putting the race away before it could take off. Most expect Bernier to come through on Tuesday.

Candidate ads:
Bernier: https://vimeo.com/295435182/368ea05d6d

25th

Candidates: Sen. Janet Bewley, D-Ashland, vs. Republican James Bolen.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Bolen $261,538 raised, $250,761 spent; Bewley $199,877 raised, $158,641 spent.

IE spending: No IEs reported.

Analysis: If this race was a head fake by Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, it sure was an expensive one. The liberal One Wisconsin Now, which tracks media buys, says the Republican State Leadership Committee dropped $200,000 on broadcast and cable for issue ads, which aren’t reported to the state. Meanwhile, the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate contributed $105,24 to Bolen’s campaign in the most recent reporting period. Many insiders have had their doubts Republican could flip this seat considering its Dem lean and the expectation it will be a good Dem year. But Greater Wisconsin has gone up here on TV in what Dems say is a precautionary move. Republicans say the race is for real and they’ve put the needed resources in to make it competitive.

Candidate ads:
Bewley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QUGzxp0P6k
Bolen: https://vimeo.com/293271608/2b31a67152; https://vimeo.com/295417995/b8df25ad84

31st

Candidates: Republican Mel Pittman vs. Dem Jeff Smith.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Smith $110,864 raised, $76,719 spent; Pittman $96,625 raised, $97,591 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Smith $77,324; Pro-Pittman $4,963.

Analysis: A Dem-leaning seat in a Dem-leaning year should be good news for Smith, a former state rep. The race for the seat being vacated by Dem Kathleen Vinehout has been fairly quiet even though Trump did well here two years ago. If the president inspired a true realignment outstate, this could be one to watch on Election Day. But if it snaps back to past performance, it likely will stay in Dem hands.

Candidate ads:
Smith: https://vimeo.com/298050151
Pittman: https://vimeo.com/296938642

Assembly

14th

Candidates: GOP state Treasurer Matt Adamczyk vs. Dem Robyn Vining.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Adamczyk $125,611 raised, $105,167 spent; Vining $84,941 raised, $52,793 spent.

IE spending:
Pro-Adamczyk $54,166, Anti-Vining $29,006; total $83,173
Pro-Vining $70,097

Analysis: Perhaps no seat on the Assembly map will be a truer test of the suburban phenomenon, which GOP Rep. Dale Kooyenga is vacating to run for state Senate. The district, which includes Wauwatosa, has been the heart of Walker country in past years. But insiders say ‘Tosa has been changing demographically and the party’s trouble with female suburban voters is real. The district stretches into Brookfield, more friendly GOP territory. But there are also a Libertarian and registered Independent in the race that could complicate things for Adamczyk.

Candidate ads:
Vining: https://www.facebook.com/RobynForWI/videos/324761991685315/

23rd

Candidates: Rep. Jim Ott, R-Menomonee Falls, vs. Dem Liz Sumner.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Ott $59,046 raised, $34,171 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Ott $10,332; total $10,332.
Pro-Sumner $69,168; total $69,168.

Analysis: Like the 14th, this district is on the watch list, because of the GOP’s struggles with Milwaukee suburban voters. Lately, Republicans have been feeling better about this seat than the 14th. Ott has benefited from his longtime work as a TV meteorologist, but the work by Leadership MKE, backed by Chris Abele, has provided a boost for Sumner.

Candidate ads:
Ott: https://www.facebook.com/JimOttForAssembly/videos/267267997462761/

50th

Candidates: Republican Tony Kurtz vs. Dem Art Shrader.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Kurtz $258,807 raised, $206,703 spent; Shrader $248,991 raised, $246,667 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Kurtz $769; Pro-Shrader $25,000.

Analysis: Some have put this among the top three GOP-held seats most likely to flip alongside the 14th and the 51st. Shrader took 42 percent of the vote against retiring Rep. Ed Brooks, R-Reedsburg, as Trump won the seat with 56.7 percent of the vote. Some Republicans are feeling better about the seat, while others from both sides see it as a nip-and-tuck race.

Candidate ads:
Kurtz: https://www.facebook.com/kurtzforassembly/videos/335005360422398/

51st

Candidates: Rep. Todd Novak, R-Dodgeville, vs. Dem Jeff Wright.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Novak $242,262 raised, $201,621 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Novak $34,098, anti-Wright $56,593.24; total $90,691.
Pro-Wright $25,500; total $25,500.

Analysis: A rematch of 2016, the general view of this race has been that Novak faces the same dynamic as Marklein, whose Senate district includes this Assembly seat. Novak has run ahead of the top of the ticket before. But he hasn’t done it by as big a margin as Marklein, and the hill is expected to be higher to climb in this district. Like two years ago, those backing Novak have been hitting Wright, a school administrator, for planning to keep his current job if elected, saying it amounts to double dipping. Novak won by 723 votes two years ago.

Candidate ads:
Novak: https://www.facebook.com/VoteToddNovak/videos/533278790472352/

92nd

Candidates: Rep. Treig Pronschinske, R-Mondovi, vs. Dem Rob Grover.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Pronschinske $153,912 raised, $162,559 spent; Grover $131,353 raised, $124,165 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Pronschinske $98,156.50, anti-Grover $42,095.86; total $140,252.

Analysis: Pronschinske was the surprise of Election Day two years ago, knocking off Dem Rep. Chris Danou in an upset few saw coming. Winning the seat in a bad year for Dems immediately put this district on the top of the watch list for 2018. But some Republicans are feeling better about the seat, saying if Trump is hurting the party in the suburbs, he’s got to be helping them in rural districts such as this one.

96th

Candidates: Dem Paul Buhr vs. Republican Loren Oldenburg.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Oldenburg $177,274 raised, $165,301 spent; Buhr $113,490 raised, $95,467 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Oldenburg, $30,660, anti-Buhr $39,262; total $69,921.

Analysis: The race to replace Rep. Lee Nerison, R-Westby, features two Viroqua farmers in a close contest. Republicans say they have had a financial advantage from independent groups that they hope will push Oldenburg over the finish line.

Candidate ads:
Oldenburg: https://www.facebook.com/oldenburgforassembly/videos/697609940626402/

Second tier

13th

Candidates: Rep. Rob Hutton, R-Brookfield, vs. Dem Dennis McBride.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: McBride $62,253 raised, $37,923 spent; Hutton $57,947 raised, $33,856 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Hutton $35,405, anti-McBride $39,712; total $75,117.

Analysis: The first IEs reported here in early October were a sign that Republicans were worried about Hutton’s polling numbers. It’s a district Trump won with just 47 percent two years ago. But more than that, some say, Hutton has struggled with his name ID as a GOP state rep in a Milwaukee suburb who’s not in leadership. That typically doesn’t get you a lot of media coverage. His numbers were soft a month ago. But if Republicans do well at the top of the ticket, that should help him.

85th

Candidates: Rep. Pat Snyder, R-Schofield, vs. Dem Alyson Leahy.
Fundraising Jan. 1-Oct. 22: Leahy $186,928 raised, $180,580 spent; Snyder $99,393 raised, $88,208 spent.

IE spending: Pro-Snyder $6,987, anti-Leahy $30,224; total $37,212.

Analysis: This race has crept up the watch list amid GOP concerns the Wausau market has been soft for Walker, likely one of the reasons Trump visited the region last month. Dems also note this seat was in their hands until the 2014 GOP wave, raising hopes there’s a chance to flip it back.

Others:

24th: Rep. Dan Knodl, R-Germantown, faces Dem Emily Siegrist. Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin has put $6,085 in mailers into the district, a move that’s either overkill for the traditionally GOP seat or a sign Republican groups aren’t taking any chances in the Milwaukee ‘burbs. Walker garnered 61.7 percent here four years ago, but Trump took just 48.5 percent two years ago.

29th: Rep. Rob Stafsholt, R-New Richmond, vs. Dem John Calabrese and Libertarian Brian Corriea. Calabrese hasn’t raised much, but it’s another place AFP-WI has done mail. Tuesday will show if that was needed.

30th: Rep. Shannon Zimmerman, R-River Falls, vs. Dem Barry Hammarback. Zimmerman had a tough GOP primary with fellow Rep. Adam Jarchow for the 10th SD late last year. Otherwise, many aren’t sure why AFP spent money here.

42nd: Rep. Jon Plumer, R-Lodi, vs. Dem Ann Groves Lloyd. The rematch of the June special election that Plumer won with 53.1 percent of the vote has been on few maps. But the American Federation for Children Action Fund spent $16,250 on radio this week hitting Lloyd. It may be a precautionary move — and because GOP groups have enough cash that they can make plays like this.

62nd: Dem John Lehman vs. Republican Robert Wittke. The district includes some of Racine and its suburbs, but stretches well into the county. The wild card here is Lehman, a former member of the Assembly and Senate and the Dem nominee for lt. guv in 2014. Trump won 53.4 percent here two years ago, while Walker took 59.1. Republican Rep. Tom Weatherston, who now holds the seat, is not seeking re-election.

68th: Republican Jesse James vs. Dem Wendy Sue Johnson. This race has largely fallen off the watch list, and James is the favorite to keep the seat in GOP hands. Republican Rep. Kathy Bernier is leaving the seat to run for the 23rd SD.

84th: Rep. Mike Kuglitsch, R-New Berlin, vs. Dem Erica Flynn. Like the 24th, this district typically isn’t competitive. Trump won it with 52.8 percent compared to Walker’s 62.2 four years ago. The IE spending — $31,614 opposing Flynn — seems like a precautionary move.


GUV CANDIDATES’ PROPOSALS COME WITH BIG PRICE TAGS

Both Gov. Scott Walker’s and challenger Tony Evers’ marquee spending proposals could result in at least hundreds of millions of dollars in increased costs over the next biennium, according to a WisPolitics.com review.

In all, a rough estimate of Evers’ major proposals could cost the state around $2 billion over the 2019-21 budget cycle, while Walker’s biggest campaign pledges could clock in at roughly $625 million over that timeframe.

Still, those numbers are a rough projection based on of a mix of state agency estimates and forecasts in addition to campaign pronouncements. The cost of many of the proposals included in the review could change significantly based on the specific policy choices each candidate would make.

To keep true to their campaign promises, both candidates would have to fit them into a complex budget picture that includes: an $897 million structural deficit heading into 2019-21, agency budget requests seeking an additional $2.4 billion, and still-to-be announced revenue projections that could cover all of it or require whomever is guv on Jan. 7 to look at cuts or revenue uppers to make it all work before sending a two-year budget plan to the Legislature.

For the review, WisPolitics.com only included cost estimates for specific proposals each candidate vowed to implement if elected. To limit the scope, the review excluded the financial impact to taxpayers, instead only looking at how each proposal would increase spending or reduce revenue.

For the most part, the review does not include spending proposed by Walker’s agencies for the upcoming budget process since he has not weighed in on their requests. It also excludes several items such as Foxconn subsidies spearheaded by Walker’s administration that were signed into law previously or Evers’ commitment to increase UW System funding that he didn’t provide specifics on.

Whichever candidate is the next governor will have to balance his priorities with current spending commitments.

“The economy has been doing relatively well and tax revenues have been growing. On the other hand, the candidates are making some significant promises and there are some significant cost increases expected in programs like Medicaid, so balancing all that could be challenging,” Wisconsin Policy Forum research director Jason Stein said.

The bulk of Evers’ proposed spending comes from the Department of Public Instruction’s two-year budget request, which asks for a $1.4 billion increase in state spending. Some of the key provisions in that request are: spending increases of $600 million for special education funding; $64 million for student mental health initiatives; and reaching a two-thirds education funding commitment from the state without raising property taxes.

Another proposal from Evers to provide a 10 percent tax cut for individuals making under $100,000 annually and for families making under $150,000 would cost roughly $340 million annually, or about $680 million over the biennium, although that’s subject to change based on how withholding tables are altered. The Legislative Fiscal Bureau has declined to provide a cost estimate without more details.

Evers has said he would pay for the tax cut by scaling back the manufacturing and agriculture tax credit by capping it at the first $300,000 in income, which his campaign says would save the state around $300 million annually.

Evers spokeswoman Britt Cudaback said in an email Evers’ proposals represent change for Wisconsin, and knocked Walker for not implementing his priorities sooner.

“Tony’s plans show he will always put the people of Wisconsin first,” she said. “These are nothing more than empty, election-year promises from Scott Walker who has had eight years of opportunities to implement these proposals but instead chose to put his political ambitions before the people of Wisconsin.”

Walker’s proposals, on the other hand, could increase state spending by roughly $625 million over the biennium. Those proposals include three tax cuts, boosts to public education funding and more state dollars going to local roads.

Still, that number could vary greatly, especially because Walker’s commitment to fund two-thirds of K-12 public education depends on where revenue limits are set. The Legislative Fiscal Bureau notes it’s possible for the state to reach a two-thirds funding commitment without putting in any additional state funding.

Walker campaign spokesman Austin Altenburg underscored the governor would fund his priorities while ensuring a balanced budget and lower tax burden. He knocked Evers for more making “empty promises” that will “raise property, income, and gas taxes on the people of Wisconsin.”

“Our state’s comeback is going strong, and Scott Walker will fight to keep Wisconsin working for generations to come,” Altenburg said.

Specifically, Walker has vowed to create two new tax credits:

*The “New Graduate Tax Credit” that would provide $1,000 annually to Wisconsin residents who’ve graduated from an in-state two-year or four-year institution.

The Department of Revenue has projected the credit would cost the state as much as $70 million over the biennium. After that, the annual cost would climb from $114 million in 2022 to $255 million in 2025.

*A credit for child care costs that would allow parents to claim 20 percent to 35 percent of childcare expenses, depending on income. The plan would reduce state revenue by about $53 million annually, beginning in 2021.

Walker’s third tax credit proposal is an expansion of the homestead tax credit for seniors. The credit is currently available to adults who own or rent their own homes and who make less than $24,680.

Walker wants to expand that credit for seniors, upping income limits in the 62-plus age category.

DOR estimates the expansion of the credit would increase state expenditures by $62 million over the 2019-21 biennium. After that, DOR projects it’ll reduce state revenues by $67 million in 2022 and $73 million in 2023.

Walker has proposed several other initiatives. Those include:

*A commitment for the state to fund two-thirds of the cost of K-12 public education, which could carry a price tag of about $260 million over the biennium. WisPolitics.com compiled this number by doubling $130 million, the amount of money the LFB estimated it would take to arrive at two-thirds funding for the current fiscal year.

Still, arriving at a biennial cost is not as simple as doubling the amount it would take this year. The true amount would depend on how the state sets the per pupil revenue limit and other factors. For instance, if the amount of money schools are allowed to bring in via state aid and property taxes holds steady or decreases, it would make it easier for the state to achieve two-thirds funding with little to no increase in state aid.

*More state funding for town and county roads. The proposal for counties would cost about $75 million over the upcoming biennium, while the one for towns would come in at around $80 million over that same timeframe.

*Finally, Walker has also proposed $25 million to $45 million annually over the next biennium for technical training centers in correctional facilities.

The WisPolitics.com review does not include several spending proposals from the candidates that are either short on specifics or the result of previous decisions.

For instance, Evers’ campaign has said he’d support a so-called “higher-ed, lower debt” bill that would create a state-run financing authority to help students refinance their student loans at lower rates.

Evers in 2017 also said he’d support cutting tuition in half for students at two-year UW campuses. Evers at the time said the estimate would cost less than $20 million annually. Two-year colleges have since been merged with four-year institutions under a new UW restructuring plan.

The state schools superintendent in passing has also said he’d support other forms of spending, including “restoring scientists in the DNR,” increasing funding for public transit and creating the office of the inspector general. He has not provided specifics for how much those programs would cost.

Meanwhile, WisPolitics.com did not include the $14.2 million required to convert Lincoln Hills youth prison into an adult facility nor the $11.5 million required to expand Mendota Juvenile Treatment Center. Both were part of a bill Walker signed into law earlier this year.

****************************************

Nov. 14: WisPolitics.com breakfast with U.S. Rep. Ron Kind

U.S. Rep. Ron Kind, D-La Crosse, is a member of the Ways and Means Committee, and will talk about trade, tariffs and the new Congress at a WisPolitics.com breakfast in D.C.

Date: Wednesday, Nov. 14

Time: Breakfast and check-in start at 8 a.m., with program going from 8:30 a.m. to 9:30 a.m.

Location: AT&T Forum, 5th floor (near Union Station) 601 New Jersey Avenue NW Washington, DC 20001

Cost: $25

PRE-PAYMENT REQUIRED. Click here to register and pay the $25 fee (put “Nov. 14 DC event” in purpose of payment line): https://www.wispolitics.com/make-payments/

Sponsors of the WisPolitics DC event series: Michael Best / Michael Best Strategies, WPS Health Solutions, AARP Wisconsin and Xcel Energy.

Partners: Wisconsin Alumni Association, UW-Madison

****************************************


WEEK AHEAD

Tuesday: Election Day.
– Polls open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.: Statewide

POLITICAL TV
(Check local listings for times in your area)

“UpFront with Mike Gousha” is a statewide commercial TV news magazine show airing Sundays around the state. This week’s show — a one-hour election special — features Gov. SCOTT WALKER and Dem challenger TONY EVERS; state treasurer candidates SARAH GODLEWSKI and TRAVIS HARTWIG; WKOW Capitol Bureau Chief EMILEE FANNON; WisPolitics.com’s JEFF MAYERS; and Marquette University Law School Poll Director CHARLES FRANKLIN.
*See viewing times in state markets here: http://www.wisn.com/upfront/
*Also view the show online each Monday at WisPolitics.com

“Rewind,” a weekly show from WisconsinEye and WisPolitics.com, airs at 8 p.m. on Fridays and 10 a.m. on Sundays in addition to being available online. On this week’s episode, WisPolitics.com’s JR ROSS and WisconsinEye’s STEVE WALTERS discuss the latest Marquette University Law School poll, the feds’ approval of Medicaid work requirements for Wisconsin and the school voucher program’s cost.
*Watch the show: http://www.wiseye.org/Video-Archive/Event-Detail/evhdid/12897

Wisconsin Public TV’s “Here and Now” airs at 7:30 p.m. Fridays. Host FREDERICA FREYBERG talks with Libertarian guv candidate PHIL ANDERSON; MEAGAN WOLFE, of the state Elections Commission, on ballot security; and CHARLES FRANKLIN, Marquette University Law School poll director, on the latest survey results. Then, Here & Now’s ZAC SCHULTZ reports on state Senate races.

“For the Record” airs at 10:30 a.m. Sunday on WISC-TV in Madison. This week, News 3’s JESSICA ARP and ROSE SCHMIDT interview U.S. Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN and challenger LEAH VUKMIR; and Gov. SCOTT WALKER and challenger TONY EVERS.

“Capital City Sunday” is being preempted by an hour-long special of “UpFront with Mike Gousha.”

“The Insiders” is a weekly WisOpinion.com web show featuring former Democratic Senate Majority Leader CHUCK CHVALA and former Republican Assembly Speaker SCOTT JENSEN. This week features two new episodes. In one episode, Jensen and Chvala give their party’s closing argument just days before Tuesday’s vote for governor, U.S. Senate, attorney general and the Legislature. And in another, the two outline the top issues affecting Tuesday’s elections.
*Watch the videos or listen to the shows: https://www.wispolitics.com/category/opinion/the-insiders/

NAMES IN THE NEWS
Send items to staff@wispolitics.com

Upcoming WisPolitics.com events in Madison and D.C. include:

*A Thursday WisPolitics.com post-election party at the Madison Club. Guest include Gov. SCOTT WALKER (invited) and Dem candidate TONY EVERS (invited); Facebook Global Politics and Government Outreach Director KATIE HARBATH; Center for Journalism Ethics Director KATHLEEN BARTZEN CULVER; political strategists TANYA BJORK on the Democratic side and MICHELLE LITJENS on the Republican side; and WisOpinion Insiders and former legislative leaders SCOTT JENSEN and CHUCK CHVALA; as well as an appearance by NPR’s DAVID FOLKENFLIK. The party, which runs from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m., is free to WisPolitics.com subscribers and members. Others pay a fee of $30 each. Register: https://www.wispolitics.com/2018/nov-8-wispolitics-com-post-election-party-in-madison/

*And a Nov. 14 D.C. breakfast with U.S. Rep. RON KIND. The Ways and Means Committee member will discuss trade, tariffs and the new Congress. See more: https://www.wispolitics.com/2018/nov-14-wispolitics-com-breakfast-with-u-s-rep-ron-kind/

WisPolitics.com and the Milwaukee Press Club are partnering to host a Nov. 14 Newsmaker Luncheon with former Gov. TOMMY THOMPSON. Thompson will take questions from the following panel of journalists: TMJ4’s CHARLES BENSON; Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s DAN BICE; and WISN 12 News’ JOYCE GARBACIAK. See details and register: https://www.wispolitics.com/2018/milwaukee-press-club-former-wisconsin-gov-tommy-thompson-to-speak-at-newsmaker-luncheon-cohosted-by-wispolitics-com/

UW-Madison’s Center for Journalism Ethics and Madison Society of Professional Journalists are partnering to host a post-election panel on Wednesday night in Madison. The three panelists are: DAVID FOLKENFLIK, of NPR News; JESSIE OPOIEN, of the Capital Times; and DHAVAN SHAH, of UW-Madison’s School of Journalism and Mass Communication. The event will be moderated by Center Director KATHLEEN BARTZEN CULVER. See more: https://www.wispolitics.com/2018/spj-madison-uw-madison-center-for-journalism-ethics-to-host-post-midterm-panel-nov-7/

House Speaker PAUL RYAN has appointed U.S. Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER, R-Green Bay, to the Cyberspace Solarium Commission. The body was established under the National Defense Authorization Act and looks to develop the nation’s cybersecurity policy. See the release: https://www.wispolitics.com/2018/speaker-ryan-names-members-to-cyberspace-solarium-commission/

The Fox Cities Chamber Board of Directors has brought on two new additions: MARK THOMPSON, ThedaCare CFO and COO; and ARIST MASTORIDES, Kimberly-Clark Corporation vice president/general manager of North America child care. See the full list of directors: https://www.wispolitics.com/2018/fox-cities-chamber-of-commerce-announces-updates-to-its-board-of-directors/

ENDORSEMENTS: The following is a list of recent endorsements made for statewide and congressional district elections, based on emails received by WisPolitics.com:

— Governor:

SCOTT WALKER: Milwaukee Police Association.

TONY EVERS: Wisconsin State Journal.

— U.S. Senate:

LEAH VUKMIR: Former U.S. Secretary of State CONDOLEEZZA RICE, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Milwaukee Police Association.

— Attorney general:

BRAD SCHIMEL: Wisconsin State Lodge Fraternal Order of Police, Wisconsin State Journal.

For more Names in the News, see subscriber products from earlier in the week plus the press release page at WisPolitics.com: https://www.wispolitics.com/

For upcoming events, see the “Week Ahead” in this product and in your e-mail Monday morning. Click here for the online calendar: https://www.wispolitics.com/category/events/

If you have a contribution, e-mail staff@wispolitics.com

LOBBYIST WATCH
(from the state Ethics Commission)

Twenty-five changes were made to the lobbying registry in the past 10 days.

Follow this link for the complete list:
https://lobbying.wi.gov/Who/LobbyingRegistryChanges/2017REG/SearchByDateRange

(c)2018 WisPolitics.com.
All rights reserved. Reproduction or retransmission of this publication, in whole or in part, without the express permission of WisPolitics.com is prohibited. Unauthorized reproduction violates United States copyright law (17 USC 101 et seq.), as does retransmission by facsimile or any other electronic means, including electronic mail.

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