Trump administration analysis finds reconciliation bill would boost Wisconsinites’ wages

The Trump administration is touting new findings from the White House Council of Economic Advisers, saying Republicans’ reconciliation bill would put more money in Wisconsinites’ pockets. 

The council is run by appointees of President Donald Trump, including former UW-Madison Prof. Kim Ruhl. The reconciliation bill would raise wages for Wisconsinites in the long run, adjusted for inflation, by about $5,500-$10,400 per worker, according to the findings. The council also found a typical Wisconsin family with two children would see higher take-home pay of about $7,200-$12,000 if the bill is signed into law. 

U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Madison, knocked the bill in a statement to WisPolitics, arguing it would benefit the ultrawealthy. 

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“If Republicans were interested in writing a bill that gives average Wisconsinites some much-needed breathing room, I’d be the first one at the table,” Baldwin said. “Instead, Republicans’ plan guts programs that working families rely on, from Medicaid to Food Stamps, all so they can rig the tax code for corporations and wealthy Americans. The White House can’t claim they are supporting working people and Made in Wisconsin businesses while giving handouts to the ultrawealthy, kicking over 250,000 Wisconsinites off their health care, and jacking up costs for families, manufacturers, and farmers.”

Baldwin’s office also pointed to a Brookings Institution report released today voicing skepticism about the Council of Economic Advisers’ analysis of the bill’s potential impact. 

According to the White House, the Council of Economic Advisers calculates investment, GDP and wages in response to lower effective tax rates in the analysis. 

Other Wisconsin Dems did not return requests for comment. 

Several Wisconsin Republicans praised the findings in statements to WisPolitics, arguing the bill will benefit Wisconsinites. 

U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, R-Minocqua, said the bill would directly benefit Wisconsinites and “delivers major wins for the American people by protecting families and small businesses from the largest tax hike in history and by putting more money back into the pockets of seniors, parents, and workers.” 

Some other findings from the Council of Economic Advisers included: 

• About 6% of the state’s labor force would benefit from the “no tax on tips” provision of the bill, about 175,000 workers. Gov. Tony Evers made a similar proposal in his state budget, but Republicans removed it and have introduced a bill to exempt cash tips from income tax. 
• About 27% of Wisconsin employees regularly work overtime and would benefit from the “no tax on overtime” provision. 
• The package would protect about 124,000 full-time equivalent jobs over the next four years compared to if the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act were allowed to expire. 

The council also said the bill would encourage increasing timber harvests, where allowed on National Forest System lands, by at least 25% compared to 2024.