Marquette University: Final pre-election Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin voters finds both Senate and governor’s races are tossups

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin voters finds the races for both U.S. Senate and governor are tossups one week before election day.

Among likely voters in the election for U.S. Senate, Ron Johnson is supported by 50% and Mandela Barnes by 48%. In the Marquette Law Poll’s previous survey, Oct. 3-9, among likely voters Johnson received 52% and Barnes 46%.

Among registered voters in the current poll, 48% support Johnson and 45% support Barnes. “Likely voters” are those who say they are certain to vote or who say they have already voted. “Registered voters” include those already registered and those who say they will register by election day. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate.

The governor’s race remains a tossup: Among likely voters 48% support Democratic incumbent Gov. Tony Evers, while 48% favor Republican Tim Michels. The independent candidate, Joan Beglinger, is chosen by 2%, while 1% don’t know. Beglinger ended her campaign on September 6 but will remain on the November ballot. In the Oct. 3-9 poll, among likely voters, Evers received 47%, Michels 46% and Beglinger 4%. In the new poll, among registered voters, 44% support Evers, 45% support Michels and 5% support Beglinger.

The survey was conducted Oct. 24-Nov. 1, 2022, interviewing 802 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The margin of error among 679 likely voters is +/-4.8 percentage points.

Table 1 shows the vote preference for governor since August among likely voters and among all registered voters. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Vote for Governor

(a) Likely voters

Poll dates	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	48	48	2	0	1	0
10/3-9/22	47	46	4	1	1	1
9/6-11/22	47	44	5	0	3	0
8/10-15/22	48	44	4	0	2	1

(b) Registered voters

Poll dates	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	44	45	5	0	3	3
10/3-9/22	46	41	7	1	3	1
9/6-11/22	44	43	8	1	4	0
8/10-15/22	45	43	7	0	3	2

Table 2 shows the trend in support for the Senate candidates among likely voters and among registered voters since August.

Table 2: Vote for U.S. Senate

(a) Likely voters

Poll dates	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	48	50	0	1	1
10/3-9/22	46	52	1	1	1
9/6-11/22	48	49	1	1	0
8/10-15/22	52	45	0	1	1

(b) Registered voters

Poll dates	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	45	48	2	1	3
10/3-9/22	47	47	4	2	1
9/6-11/22	47	48	3	3	0
8/10-15/22	51	44	1	3	1

Partisan support for the candidates in the race for governor is shown in Table 3 among likely voters. Both Democratic and Republican voters are strongly unified behind their respective party’s candidates, with 95% of Democrats supporting Evers and 97% of Republicans supporting Michels. Forty-seven percent of independents back Evers, while 46% prefer Michels. The independent candidate, Beglinger, receives 5% from independent voters and 1% from Republicans and 1% from Democrats.

Table 3: Vote for Governor by party identification (among likely voters)

(a) Oct. 24-Nov. 1

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	2	97	1	0	0
Independent	47	46	5	1	0
Democrat	95	2	1	1	0

(b) Oct. 3-9

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	6	88	4	0	2	1
Independent	43	44	7	1	1	3
Democrat	96	2	1	0	0	0

(c) Sept. 6-11

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	<td valign=”top” style=”border-