MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds a wider margin in the U.S. Senate race than a month ago. Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. In September, among likely voters, Johnson received 49% and Barnes 48%. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate.
The governor’s race has tightened to a tossup: Among likely voters, 47% support Democrat incumbent Gov. Tony Evers, while 46% favor the Republican challenger, Tim Michels. The independent candidate, Joan Beglinger, is chosen by 4%, while 1% don’t know for whom they will vote. Beglinger ended her campaign on Sept. 6 but will remain on the November ballot. In September, among likely voters, Evers received 47%, Michels 44%, and Beglinger 5%.
The survey was conducted Oct. 3-9, 2022, interviewing 801 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. The margin of error among the 652 likely voters is +/-4.8 percentage points. The poll completed 596 of these interviews prior to the debate between the U.S. Senate candidates on Oct. 7.
Table 1 shows the vote preference for governor among likely voters, from August to October, and among registered voters since June. Beglinger was not included in the June survey. The results among all registered voters are more favorable to the Democratic candidates in both the governor and senate races, while totals for likely voters are, relatively, favorable for the Republican candidates. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
Table 1: Vote for Governor
(a) Likely voters
| Poll dates | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
| 10/3-9/22 | 47 | 46 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9/6-11/22 | 47 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 8/10-15/22 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Poll dates | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
| 10/3-9/22 | 46 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 9/6-11/22 | 44 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 8/10-15/22 | 45 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 6/14-20/22 | 48 | 41 | N/A | 2 | 8 | 2 |
Table 2 shows the trend in support for the Senate candidates among likely voters from August to October and among registered voters since June.
Table 2: Vote for U.S. Senate
(a) Likely voters
| Poll dates | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
| 10/3-9/22 | 46 | 52 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9/6-11/22 | 48 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 8/10-15/22 | 52 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Poll dates | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
| 10/3-9/22 | 47 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 9/6-11/22 | 47 | 48 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 8/10-15/22 | 51 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 6/14-20/22 | 46 | 44 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
Partisan support for the candidates in the race for governor is shown in Table 3 among likely voters. Both Democratic and Republican voters are strongly unified behind their respective party’s candidates, with 96% of Democrats supporting Evers and 88% of Republicans supporting Michels, a small decline in GOP support for Michels since September. Forty-three percent of independents back Evers, while 44% prefer Michels, a tightening of preferences among independents since September and August. The independent candidate, Beglinger, receives 7% from independent voters, 4% from Republicans, and 1% from Democrats.
Table 3: Vote for governor, by party identification, among likely voters
(a) October
| Party ID | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 6 | 88 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Independent | 43 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Democrat | 96 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Party ID | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 3 | 92 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Independent | 45 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Democrat | 95 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Party ID | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 5 | 92 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Independent | 49 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Democrat | 94 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Partisan support for the U.S. Senate candidates is shown in Table 4 among likely voters. Partisans are strongly aligned with their party’s candidates, with 93% of Democrats supporting Barnes and 96% of Republicans supporting Johnson. Forty-five percent of independents back Barnes, while 51% prefer Johnson. In September, 46% favored Barnes and 48% backed Johnson, a smaller shift among independents than seen between August and September.
Table 4: Vote for U.S. Senate, by party identification, among likely voters
(a) October
| Party ID | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 3 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Independent | 45 | 51 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Democrat | 93 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Party ID | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 2 | 97 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Independent | 46 | 48 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Democrat | 96 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(c) August
| Party ID | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 6 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independent | 55 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Democrat | 99 |
