Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds a close race for governor and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes with a 7-percentage-point lead in the race for U.S. Senate.
In the governor’s race, 45% support Democratic incumbent Gov. Tony Evers and 43% favor Republican Tim Michels. The independent candidate, Joan Beglinger, is chosen by 7%, with 3% saying they don’t know and 2% who declined to answer. These responses include those who are undecided but who say they lean toward supporting a candidate. In June, 48% supported Evers and 41% favored Michels.
Table 1 shows the vote preference for governor among registered voters since June. Beglinger was not included in the June survey. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
Table 1: Vote for Wisconsin governor among registered voters
| Poll dates | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
| 8/10-15/22 | 45 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 6/14-20/22 | 48 | 41 | NA | 2 | 8 | 2 |
In the race for U.S. Senate, Democrat Mandela Barnes is supported by 51% and incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is the choice of 44%, while 1% say “neither,” 3% say they don’t know and 1% decline to answer. Vote preference includes those who say they are undecided but who say they lean toward a candidate. In the June poll, 46% preferred Barnes and 44% chose Johnson.
Table 2 shows the trend in support for the Senate candidates among registered voters since June.
Table 2: Vote for U.S. Senate among registered voters
| Poll dates | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
| 8/10-15/22 | 51 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 6/14-20/22 | 46 | 44 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
The survey was conducted Aug. 10-15, 2022, interviewing 811 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points.
Partisan support for the candidates in the race for governor is shown in Table 3. Both Democratic and Republican voters are strongly unified behind their respective party’s candidates, with 91% of Democrats supporting Evers and 89% of Republicans supporting Michels. Forty-one percent of independents back Evers, while 37% prefer Michels. The independent candidate, Beglinger, receives 12% from independent voters and 4% from Republicans and 3% from Democrats.
Table 3: Vote for governor among registered voters, by party identification
(a) August
| Party ID | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 6 | 89 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Independent | 41 | 37 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 2 |
| Democrat | 91 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
(b) June
| Party ID | Evers | Michels | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 5 | 86 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Independent | 49 | 35 | 3 | 11 | 2 |
| Democrat | 95 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Partisan support for the U.S. Senate candidates is shown in Table 4. As in the governor’s race, partisans are well aligned with their party’s candidates, with 95% of Democrats supporting Barnes and 92% of Republicans supporting Johnson. Fifty-two percent of independents back Barnes, while 38% prefer Johnson.
Table 4: Vote for U.S. Senate among registered voters, by party identification
(a) August
| Party ID | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 7 | 92 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Independent | 52 | 38 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Democrat | 95 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
(b) June
| Party ID | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 6 | 89 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Independent | 41 | 41 | 3 | 13 | 3 |
| Democrat | 95 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Among Republicans, 83% say they are absolutely certain to vote in November’s elections, as do 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. Certainty of voting by party is shown in Table 5. Registered voters were asked, “Are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote?”
Table 5: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2022 general election for governor, Congress, and other offices?
(a) August
| Party ID | Absolutely certain | Very likely | 50-50 | Will not vote | Don’t know |
| Republican | 83 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Independent | 66 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 0 |
| Democrat | 82 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
The effect of the different levels of voter turnout on vote for governor is shown in Table 6. The first row shows preference among all registered voters, with the second row showing the results for an electorate composed of those either “absolutely certain” to vote or “very likely” to vote. The third row shows the results among only the most likely voters—those who say they are absolutely certain to vote.
Table 6: Vote for governor, by certainty of voting
| How likely to vote | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know |
| All registered voters | 45 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 3 |
| Certain or very likely to vote | 46 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Only those certain to vote | 48 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
Table 7 shows the vote for U.S. Senate by certainty of voting.
Table 7: Vote for U.S. Senate, by certainty of voting
| How likely to vote | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know |
| All registered voters | 51 | 44 | 1 | 3 |
| Certain or very likely to vote | 52 | 45 | 0 | 2 |
| Only those certain to vote | 52 | 45 | 0 | 1 |
Perceived candidate traits
Table 8 shows the perception of the trait that candidates “care about people like you.” Beglinger was not included in the traits battery of questions in this survey.
The relative lack of familiarity with the non-incumbent candidates, Michels and Barnes, is evident in the higher percentages that say they “don’t know” about them, compared to the two incumbents, Evers and Johnson.
Table 8: For each of the following candidates, would you say they are someone who cares about people like you, or don’t they care about people like you?
| Candidate | Cares | Doesn’t care | Don’t know |
| Evers | 54 | 38 | 9 |
| Michels | 38 | 38 | 23 |
| Barnes | 50 | 27 | 23 |
| Johnson | 41 | 49 | 10 |
Table 9 shows the perception of the trait that candidates “share my values.” As with the previous table, the non-incumbents, Michels and Barnes, have higher rates of “don’t know” responses on these items.
Table 9: For each of the following candidates, would you say they are someone who shares your values or don’t they share your values?
| Candidate | Shares values | Doesn’t share values | Don’t know |
| Evers | 50 | 41 | 9 |
| Michels | 38 | 38 | 23 |
| Barnes | 45 | 31 | 24 |
| Johnson | 40 | 50 | 10 |
Table 10 shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of the candidates since June, along with those who say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Beglinger was not included in this battery of items.
The non-incumbents have become substantially better known following their primary victories on Aug. 9, though they remain much less well known than the incumbents.
