MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette University Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin voters finds 57% approve of the job Gov. Tony Evers is doing as governor and 39% disapprove. In October 2022, 46% approved and 47% disapproved. Despite the governor’s approval, 57% think the state is on the wrong track, while 40% say it is headed in the right direction—a minimal change from the October survey.
Other headlines
- Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, the GOP presidential primary is a near-even divide, with 31% supporting former President Donald Trump and 30% supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence is the choice of 6% and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott receives 5%.
- If the election were held today and DeSantis were the GOP nominee against Biden, it would be a very close race, with 49% for Biden, 47% for DeSantis, and 4% declining to choose. Biden has a materially larger lead over Trump in a hypothetical matchup, with 52% for Biden to Trump’s 43% and 4% undecided.
The survey was conducted June 8-13, 2023, interviewing 913 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. The sample includes 419 Republicans and independents who lean Republican and were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.5 percentage points. The Democratic primary preference was asked of 453 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, with a margin of error of +/-6 percentage points.
State approval
Table 1 shows approval of Governor Evers by partisanship in the current poll and, for comparison, in October 2022. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
Table 1: Evers approval, by party identification
(a) June 2023
| Party ID | Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 17 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| Independent | 60 | 35 | 5 | 0 |
| Democrat | 93 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
(b) October 2022
| Party ID | Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 5 | 90 | 4 | 0 |
| Independent | 44 | 45 | 8 | 3 |
| Democrat | 94 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Among registered voters, 57% think the state is on the wrong track, while 40% say it is headed in the right direction. In October 2022, 58% said the state was on the wrong track and 34% said it was moving in the right direction. Partisan differences on this question are shown in Table 2. Opinion is slightly less polarized by party in June than was the case on the eve of the 2022 election.
Table 2: Wisconsin headed in right direction or wrong track, by party identification
(a) June 2023
| Party ID | Right direction | Wrong track | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 23 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| Independent | 44 | 53 | 3 | 0 |
| Democrat | 53 | 43 | 4 | 0 |
(b) October 2022
| Party ID | Right direction | Wrong track | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 12 | 84 | 4 | 1 |
| Independent | 34 | 59 | 7 | 0 |
| Democrat | 57 | 28 | 13 | 3 |
Voters remain negative about how government in Wisconsin is working, with 64% saying it is “broken” and 32% saying it is working as intended. Unlike many measures of political opinion, there is very little difference by partisanship in this view, as shown in Table 3, with about two-thirds of each partisan group saying government is broken.
Table 3: Wisconsin government working as intended or broken, by party identification
| Party ID | Working as intended | Is broken | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 30 | 68 | 2 | 0 |
| Independent | 34 | 64 | 2 | 1 |
| Democrat | 31 | 64 | 5 | 0 |
Biden approval
Approval of how Joe Biden is handling his job as president is 45%, with disapproval at 53%. In October 2022, 41% approved and 54% disapproved. Table 4 shows approval remains highly polarized by party, with independents becoming somewhat more approving of Biden since October.
Table 4: Biden approval by party identification
(a) June 2023
| Party ID | Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 1 | 97 | 1 | 0 |
| Independent | 46 | 52 | 1 | 0 |
| Democrat | 89 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
(b) October 2022
| Party ID | Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | Refused |
| Republican | 3 | 96 | 2 | 0 |
| Independent | 36 | 56 | 7 | 2 |
| Democrat | 90 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
Presidential primary outlook
Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, the GOP presidential primary is a near-even divide, with 31% supporting former President Donald Trump and 30% supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence is the choice of 6% and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott receives 5%. The full list of candidates is shown in Table 5. A substantial 21% say they have not decided whom to support.
Table 5: Republican presidential primary preferences, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican (* = less than 0.5%)
| Response | Percent |
| Donald Trump | 31 |
| Ron DeSantis | 30 |
| Mike Pence | 6 |
| Tim Scott | 5 |
| Nikki Haley | 3 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 3 |
| Chris Christie | 1 |
| Asa Hutchinson | * |
| Larry Elder | * |
| Doug Burgum | 0 |
| Haven’t decided | 21 |
When Republicans were asked whom they would pick if the choice were only between Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis is the choice of 57% and Trump is the pick of 41%. Table 6 shows how preferences divide when respondents are limited to only Trump and DeSantis. When forced to choose, those whose first choice is someone other than DeSantis or Trump pick DeSantis by 74% to Trump’s 25%. Among those who said they were undecided among the full slate (Table 5), 65% choose DeSantis and 28% choose Trump, while 7% continue to not choose.
Table 6: Choice of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents when limited to picking Trump or DeSantis
| GOP 1st choice | Donald Trump | Ron DeSantis | Don’t know |
| DeSantis | 1 | 98 | 1 |
| Trump | 98 | 2 | 0 |
| Other candidate | 25 | 74 | 1 |
| Undecided | 28 | 65 | 7 |
The survey asked favorability of DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Pence, and Trump. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republicans, the results are shown in Table 7. Trump and DeSantis have nearly equal favorability ratings, but DeSantis has a better (lower) unfavorable rating and more responses of “haven’t heard enough.” Pence is better known than DeSantis or Haley, and all candidates are viewed more favorably than unfavorably among GOP voters.
Table 7: Favorability ratings, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican
| Candidate | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know/refused |
| Trump | 68 | 30 | 2 | 1 |
| DeSantis | 67 | 14 | 20 | 0 |
| Pence | 52 | 34 | 13 | 2 |
| Haley | 38 | 10 | 47 | 5 |
Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, Biden is the first choice of 49%, followed by 9% who prefer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and 3% who choose Marianne Williamson. A sizable 39% say they are undecided.
While many Democratic voters say they are undecided, Biden’s favorability rating is 83%, and his unfavorability is 15%, among all Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. Table 8 shows Biden favorability by choice of primary candidate. He is rated more favorably than unfavorably even among those supporting Kennedy or Williamson and among those who are undecided.
Table 8: Biden favorability, by first choice in primary, among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic
| First choice | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough |
| Biden | 97 | 2 | 1 |
| Kennedy or Williamson | 60 | 39 | 1 |
| Undecided | 73 | 24 | 4 |
2024 general election
If the election were held today and DeSantis were the GOP nominee against Biden, it would be a very close race in Wisconsin, with 49% for Biden, 47% for DeSantis, and 4% declining to choose. These responses include those initially undecided who were then asked “if you had to choose.”
Biden has a larger lead over Trump in a similar hypothetical matchup, with 52% for Biden to Trump’s 43% and 4% undecided. These responses, too, include those who were initially undecided but were then asked “if you had to choose.”
Table 9 shows the breakdown of vote choices by party identification. Republicans are virtually equal in their support of either DeSantis or Trump. Independents prefer Biden over DeSantis, but Biden does even better among independents when Trump is the nominee.
Table 9: General-election vote, by party identification
(a) DeSantis vs. Biden
| Party ID | Ron DeSantis | Joe Biden | Haven’t decided | Don’t know/Refused |
| Republican | 94 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Independent | 44 | 52 | 2 | 3 |
| Democrat | 3 | 94 | 2 | 1 |
