With five days left until the election, here’s your reminder that independent experts, economists, and even conservative Republicans agree: Donald Trump’s plans would tank the economy and worsen inflation.
- Moody’s: Trump plans would trigger a recession by mid-2025
- Moody’s: 3.1 million fewer jobs under Trump than Harris
- Axios: “16 Nobel economists see a Trump inflation bomb”
- WSJ Economist Survey: Under Trump’s plan, 68% say higher prices, 65% say higher deficits, 61% say higher interest rates, 59% say lower employment
- Reuters: “Goldman Sachs sees biggest boost to US economy from Harris win”
- Gary Cohn, Trump’s former top economic adviser: Trump’s plan can lead to inflation
- Center for American Progress Action Fund: Trump’s plan “would amount to about a $3,900 tax increase for a middle-income family.”
- Conservative-leaning American Action Forum: “Given a 10 percent tariff, U.S. households would have nearly $2,350 in additional annual costs, while adding a 60 percent tariff on China would drive costs up to $3,900.”
Right on cue – new reporting today from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel highlights the severe price hikes families and consumers will suffer because of Trump’s national sales tax.
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Businesses are worried about higher tariffs, like taxes, under Trump presidency
[Rick Barrett, 10/31/2024]
- If Donald Trump wins the election, Fyxation Bicycles of Milwaukee could face a 60% tariff on the bikes it imports from China, a rate increase that would likely hurt sales
- Even a 20% tariff increase could cost a typical middle-class household more than $2,600 in higher prices, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Companies like Fyxation feel the pain when people reduce spending on non-essential purchases. A “get tough on China” tax might be in the interest of politicians, but it’s really just a tax on consumers, said Fyxation Bicycles co-own Nick Ginster.
- Trump established nearly $80 billion worth of tariffs on thousands of products in 2018 and 2019, which was effectively one of the largest tax increases in decades, according to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, in Washington, D.C.
- Large bicycle companies, like Wisconsin-based Trek, have manufacturing in China but also make bikes in Taiwan, Vietnam, Germany, the Netherlands and the United States.
- The effect of tariffs on American bicycle brands is unequal, says People for Bikes, a trade association that represents manufacturers and consumers.
- Some companies are disadvantaged based solely on trade policy and not the quality of their products, according to People for Bikes.
- American consumers could lose billions of dollars in spending power if tariffs are raised on common household products like microwaves and clothing from China, according to the National Retail Federation.
- Low-income households are especially affected, said Jonathan Gold, the federation’s vice president of supply chain and customs policy.
- Small U.S. companies are also vulnerable to higher tariffs if they import products or supplies from China
- “Unfortunately, many small and medium-sized companies don’t have the ability to take on those price increases, so they have to pass them along to consumers,” Gold said.