In the Assembly, it’s about control.
In the Senate, it’s about setting the stage for 2026.
Insiders are watching more than a dozen fall races under new maps to see if: Republicans can keep legislative control for another two years; or if Dems can beat the odds and seize control of the Assembly for the first time since 2010 and set the stage for a Senate takeover two years from now.
With the primaries now out of the way, the focus turns to the November elections and the races that will most likely get the most attention from the caucuses and outside groups.
In the Senate, the calculation is simple. There’s no real path for Dems to retake the majority after going into this session down 22-11. But there are four GOP-held seats considered in play. To create a path in 2026 to flip the chamber, Dems have to pick up at least three of those seats and defend state Sen. Brad Pfaff, D-Onalaska, to have a shot at the majority in two years.
In the Assembly, the puzzle is more complicated. Republicans went into this session with a 64-35 majority and are expected to see their majority shrink under the new maps.
Longtime GOP redistricting consultant Joe Handrick rates 46 Assembly seats as “safe” or “strong” Republican. He rates 44 seats “safe,” “strong” or “lean” Dem. That leaves nine seats that he considers the most competitive.
For Republicans, keeping their majority is a matter of winning all 46 that are safe or strong GOP and winning four of the nine remaining seats. For Dems, it’s a matter of winning the 44 safe, strong or lean seats on their side and winning six of the nine.
State Reps. Jessie Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek, and Todd Novak, R-Dodgeville, are now in lean Dem seats under the new map. Meanwhile, state Rep. Loren Oldenburg, R-Viroqua, is seeking reelection to a strong Dem seat. All three have run ahead of the top of the ticket in the past. If they can pull that off again this fall, it could create additional paths for Republicans to hold the majority.
Those “lean” seats are rated as having a 53%-54% Dem performance at the top of the ticket.
Here is a list of the legislative races WisPolitics is initially focusing on. Included are partisan performance under the new maps, the candidates and details from pre-primary reports filed last week.
Senate
8th SD: Sen. Duey Stroebel, R-Saukville, vs. Jodi Habush Sinykin, D-Milwaukee.
The numbers: 51% GOP seat.
The money: Stroebel, $149,118 raised year to date, $408,646 cash on hand. Sinykin, a trial lawyer, $319,566 raised, $290,293 cash on hand.
14th SD: Sen. Joan Ballweg, R-Markesan, vs. Sarah Keyeski, D-Lodi.
The numbers: 52% Dem seat.
The money: Ballweg, $165,513 raised year to date, $211,797 cash on hand. Keyeski, a mental health counselor, $221,280 raised, $197,482 cash on hand.
18th SD: Anthony Phillips, R-Appleton, vs. Kristin Alfheim, D-Appleton.
The numbers: 54% Dem seat.
The money: Phillips, a cancer physician, $145,801 raised year to date, $51,277 cash on hand. Alfheim, a small business owner and member of the Appleton Common Council, $255,323 raised, $227,784 cash on hand.
30th SD: Jim Rafter, R-Green Bay, vs. Jamie Wall, D-Green Bay.
The numbers: 52% Dem seat.
The money: Rafter, Allouez Village president, $37,650 raised year to date, $8,912 cash on hand. Wall, a business consultant, $319,503 raised, $275,179 cash on hand.
32nd SD: Sen. Brad Pfaff, D-Onalaska, vs. Stacey Klein, R-Trempealeau.
The numbers: 53% Dem seat.
The money: Pfaff, $184,255 raised year to date, $215,025 cash on hand. Klein, a financial representative who serves on the Trempealeau County Board, $41,530 raised year to date, including $5,000 in loans, $12,395 cash on hand.
Assembly
92nd AD: Rep. Clint Moses, R-Menomonie, vs. Joe Plouff, D-Menomonie.
The numbers: 52% GOP seat.
The money: Moses, $50,236 raised year to date, $87,558 cash on hand. Plouff, a former state representative, $13,228 raised, $4,620 cash on hand.
30th AD: Rep. Shannon Zimmerman, R-River Falls, vs. Alison Page, D-River Falls.
The numbers: 51% GOP seat.
The money: Zimmerman, $23,270 raised year to date, $116,608 cash on hand. Page, a health care administrator, $78,158 raised, $53,517 cash on hand.
85th AD: Rep. Pat Snyder, R-Schofield, vs. Yee Leng Xiong, D-Weston.
The numbers: 51% GOP seat.
The money: Snyder, $18,620 raised year to date, $42,969 cash on hand. Xiong, a non-profit executive, $122,552 raised, $84,785 cash on hand.
88th AD: Benjamin Franklin, R-De Pere, vs. Christy Welch, D-De Pere.
The numbers: 50.5% GOP seat.
The money: Franklin, a small business owner and Air Force vet, $60,970 raised year to date, $8,777 cash on hand. Welch, a manufacturing executive, $92,263 raised, $66,749 cash on hand.
94th AD: Ryan Huebsch, R-Onalaska, vs. Rep. Steve Doyle, D-Onalaska.
The numbers: 50-50. Huebsch, son of former Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch, $119,258 raised year to date, $79,533 cash on hand. Doyle, $601,970 raised, $422,985 cash on hand.
89th AD: Patrick Buckley, R-Green Bay, vs. Ryan Spaude, D-Green Bay.
The numbers: 51% Dem seat.
The money: Buckley, the Brown County Board chair, $23,417 raised year to date, $22,791 cash on hand. Spaude, a Brown County assistant DA, $43,373 raised, $21,678 cash on hand.
61st AD: Rep. Bob Donovan, R-Greenfield, vs. LuAnn Bird, D-Hales Corners.
The numbers: 51% Dem seat.
The money: Donovan, $42,668 raised to date, $47,634 cash on hand. Bird, a former Whitnall School Board member, $118,373 raised, $93,729 cash on hand.
26th AD: Rep. Amy Binsfeld, R-Sheboygan, vs. Joe Sheehan, D-Sheboygan.
The numbers: 52% Dem seat.
The money: Binsfeld, $14,247 raised to date, $15,893 cash on hand. Sheehan, former Sheboygan Area School District superintendent, $48,504 raised, $30,240 cash on hand.
53rd AD: Dean Kaufert, R-Neenah, vs. Duane Shukoski, D-Neenah.
The numbers: 52% Dem seat.
The money: Kaufert, a former state rep and Neenah mayor, didn’t file a report for the pre-primary period. Shukoski, a retired environmental safety manager, $23,935 raised, $15,870 cash on hand.
21st AD: Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek, vs. David Marstellar, D-Milwaukee.
The numbers: 53% Dem seat.
The money: Rodriguez, $14,562 raised year to date, $17,891 cash on hand. Marstellar, a former businessman, $59,708 raised, $41,641 cash on hand.
51st AD: Rep. Todd Novak, R-Dodgeville, vs. Elizabeth Grabe, D-Mount Horeb.
The numbers: 54% Dem seat.
The money: Novak, $19,964 raised year to date, $22,538 cash on hand. Grabe, a realtor, $23,037 raised, $19,990 cash on hand.
96th AD: Rep. Loren Oldenburg, R-Viroqua, vs. Tara Johnson, D-La Crosse.
The numbers: 56% Dem seat.
The money: Oldenburg, $7,200 year to date, $25,079 cash on hand. Johnson, a former La Crosse County Board chair, $81,206 raised, $11,416 cash on hand.
Dems announce target districts for fall election
Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer, D-Racine, Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein, D-Middleton, and state Dem Party Chair Ben Wikler today announced a “starting lineup” of priority races for the fall election.
The list includes five Senate races and 15 Assembly races Dems will target this fall in their quest to flip control of the Legislature.
Wikler said Dems are prepared to spend “millions” on legislative races, but did not provide specifics.
The State Senate Democratic Committee in May announced it had reserved $7 million in TV ads for key Senate races in the fall, including the 8th, 14th, 18th 30th and 32nd SDs. At the time, SSDC Executive Director Andrew Whitley said the caucus expected to up its buys.
Priority races in the Senate include:
- The 8th SD race between Stroebel and Habush Sinykin;
- The 14th SD race between Ballweg and Keyeski;
- The 18th SD race between Phillips and Alfheim;
- The 30th SD race between Wall and Rafter;
- The 32nd SD race between Pfaff and Klein;
Priority races in the Assembly include:
- The 53rd AD race between Kaufert and Shukoski;
- The 26th AD race between Sheehan and Binsfeld;
- The 88th AD race between Franklin and Welch;
- The 89th AD race between Buckley and Spaude;
- The 71st AD race between Stevens Point Dem and Portage County Board member Vincent Miresse and Republican Robert Pahmeier, who previously worked for the Federal Bureau of Prisons;
- The 85th AD race between Xiong and Snyder;
- The 91st AD race between Dem state Rep. Jodi Emerson, of Eau Claire, and Altoona Republican Michele Skinner, an Eau Claire County Board member;
- The 94th AD race between Doyle and Huebsch;
- The 93rd AD race between Wisconsin Public Education Network communications director Christian Phelps and Republican town of Washington board member James Rolbiecki;
- The 92nd AD race between Moses and Plouff;
- The 30th AD race between Zimmerman and Page;
- The 51st AD race between Grabe and Novak;
- The 40th AD race between Baraboo Dem Karen DeSanto, former Boys & Girls Clubs of West Central Wisconsin CEO, and Prairie du Sac Republican and businessman Gerald Helmer;
- The 21st AD between Rodriguez and Marstellar; and
- The 61st AD race between Bird and Donovan.
