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Bipartisan poll also shows narrow GOP lead in gov race, political violence a growing concern, “MAGA” movement/Trump find support from nearly half of voters
[MADISON] – In the first statewide poll looking at the two primaries in Wisconsin’s 2026 race for governor, the bipartisan Badger Battleground Poll found that Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany and Democrat Mandela Barnes, the former lieutenant governor and candidate for U.S. Senate, open with leads in their respective primaries for governor.
Tiffany had the support of 30 percent of poll respondents in the Republican primary, with the nearest prospective candidate, Eric Hovde, garnering 14 percent from voters, while 34 percent of the Republican electorate remained undecided. The poll also included candidate and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, and prospective candidates Tim Michels and Mary Felzkowski. Just more than 9 percent of voters favored “none of these” candidates, and the poll was conducted before news that former Gov. Tommy Thompson was also considering a run.
In the Democratic primary, Barnes opens as a potential candidate with the highest marks among poll respondents, with 16 percent saying they would support him in a primary, while declared candidate Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez is in second at 8 percent. Nearly 38 percent of Democrats remain undecided in the race. Also included in the poll were declared candidates Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, State Rep. Francesca Hong, State Sen. Kelda Roys, ex-WEDC CEO Missy Hughes, and prospective candidates Attorney General Josh Kaul, and former Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chairman Ben Wikler.
Head-to-head, Republicans open with a narrow lead on a “generic” ballot. 43 percent of voters say that if the election for governor were held today, they would support a Republican candidate, while 40 percent would support the Democrat.
The Badger Battleground Poll was designed and commissioned by Platform Communications as part of a collaborative bipartisan effort with input from Democratic and Republican consultants. Platform does not engage in partisan campaign work for political campaigns or political parties in any way, and prepares the poll to provide its range of bipartisan, nonpartisan, and private-sector clients insights into public affairs in the state of Wisconsin.
The poll also found:
- Following recent high-profile events of political violence in the country, more than 95 percent of voters say that they are personally concerned about political violence.
- Voters in the state are almost evenly split on job approval for President Donald Trump. 49 percent approve of the job he is doing as president, while 48 percent disapprove. 46 percent of those polled consider themselves supporters of the “Make America Great Again” movement.
“These results should show that having a sitting congressman with name recognition is an early advantage, and also that any smart campaign knows there is still a lot of race to run,” said Keith Gilkes, who advised on the poll from the GOP perspective. “The data shows there is still a large chunk of undecided voters out there for candidates to talk to as the race develops.”
“Mandela Barnes is a known commodity among Democratic voters, having just run a statewide race for U.S. Senate,” said Tanya Bjork, a Democratic strategist. “While it remains early, it shows that those candidates with statewide name recognition are emerging early, in what is sure to be a robust race to be the standard bearer for the Democratic Party.”
To view the poll memo outlining results, click here.
