The non-partisan election forecaster Cook Political Report moved Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District to a “Toss Up.”

From Cook Political Report:

“Wisconsin’s sprawling, largely rural 3rd District voted for Trump by a seven-point margin in 2024. But Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden won reelection by less than three points against Rebecca Cooke, a 37-year-old small business owner who ran as an unabashed moderate.

[R]egardless of what the national environment looks like next year, Van Orden is in a different category than a generic Republican. Last year’s election results show that he’s turned off a significant segment of Trump voters in his district.

Results from the state Supreme Court race earlier this month are also promising for Democrats. Liberal candidate Susan Crawford carried the 3rd District by seven-and-a-half points, per data crunched by election analyst Drew Savicki… the 15-point swing between Kamala Harris’ margin and Crawford’s margin in the 3rd District should be a warning sign for Van Orden.

[T]he congressman also continues attracting fresh headlines over his outbursts. He’s most recently clashed with a fired federal government employee and an economist testifying during an Agriculture Committee hearing.”

DCCC Spokesperson Courtney Rice: 
“The writing is on the wall for Derrick Van Orden. From voting to rip away health care from thousands of his constituents, to blindly supporting sweeping tariffs that are wreaking havoc on Wisconsin’s economy, to continually screaming at anyone who gets in his way, it’s clear Van Orden’s time in office is coming to an end.”