
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: House Majority PAC
DATE: February 3, 2025
RE: HMP 2026 Win Them Back Fund
In 2024, House Democrats faced steep headwinds in a Republican leaning environment, yet overperformed the top of the ticket by more than any presidential election cycle since 2004 and picked up seats – defeating seven Republican incumbents and winning thirteen seats won by Trump. Unfortunately, we still fell three seats short of taking back the House.
One of the major roadblocks we have faced as a party has been declining support among a multi-racial group of working class voters. That’s why HMP is today launching a 2026 Win Them Back Fund focused on ensuring that we win back working class voters across the congressional battlefield.
While Democrats at the Presidential level have consistently lost ground with working class voters for over the last decade, House Democrats like Reps. Adam Gray, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Don Davis, and Gabe Vasquez continue to overperform with this crucial bloc of voters. Their victories demonstrate that House Democrats can win back this coalition of voters with the support of strategic investments in recruitment, research, and programming.
That is why HMP is launching this new initiative – to go on offense, improve the Democratic Party’s brand with working class voters, and ultimately make inroads with these voters who will have an outsized role in key races across the 2026 map. The Democratic Party brand needs to return to its roots as the party voters associate us as “For The People,” and HMP’s investments will put us on the right path.
Win Them Back
After careful analysis of our successful model in New York and California in 2024, we’ve built out a battleground-wide strategic investment of $50 million in programming for 2026. This will allow us to build and fully fund programming in races where working class voters play a major role in the electorate. With Democrats only needing to flip three seats to take back the House, winning back support among working class voters will be critical.
The House Republican agenda – including tariffs and taxes that would raise costs on families and force steep cuts to programs like Medicare, Social Security, and veterans’ benefits, would hurt working class voters and only benefit the ultra-rich – and awareness of that reality is key to our success with these voters.
And now, with House Republicans and Trump proposing unprecedented cuts to Medicaid, public safety funding, and pre-K programs — it is crucial for Democrats to punch back immediately.
However, it will be up to us to ensure that voters are fully aware of how Republicans will drain their wallets in contrast with the Democratic agenda that puts working class Americans first. Republican-held districts that would be especially hurt by these policies and present opportunities for House Democrats to make gains include but are not limited to:
- Rep. Nick Begich, AK-AL
- Rep. Eli Crane, AZ-02
- Rep. David Valadao, CA-22
- Rep. Ken Calvert, CA-41
- Rep. Gabe Evans, CO-08
- Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, IA-01
- Rep. Zach Nunn, IA-03
- Rep. John James, MI-10
- Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, PA-07
- Rep. Rob Bresnahan, PA-08
- Rep. Scott Perry, PA-10
- Rep. Monica De La Cruz, TX-15
- Rep. Jen Kiggans, VA-02
- Rep. Derrick Van Orden, WI-03
Research has already begun into economic messaging for these districts and target voters. In the days leading up to Trump’s inauguration, polling and focus groups of Latino men and white non-college women revealed:
- Americans were deeply concerned when they contrasted the potential for cuts to programs for regular people with the rich getting richer and the idea that it was the middle class footing the bill for them.
- The country is very concerned about cuts to Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid that are being pursued by House Republicans.
- Americans believe Trump and House Republicans will once again set their sights on the Affordable Care Act, and it greatly angers them.
- The country is also very skeptical of certain individuals in Trump’s orbit and are rightfully worried about conflicts of interest and corruption, particularly with people like Elon Musk who they suspect will find ways to profit off of taxpayer resources.
We will continue to invest in research throughout the cycle, and as our programming ramps up, we will leverage our research to launch comprehensive campaigns that will help us win back these target voters.
HMP has always prided itself on running innovative programs, and this cycle will be no exception, particularly for this new program that will prioritize investments that acknowledge how consumption habits have changed drastically with these target voters. In order to win back these working class voters, flip House seats, and retake the Majority in 2026, we will in part prioritize:
- Digital, streaming services, broadcast, and direct mail advertising to reach and persuade low information voters
- Investing in partnerships with content creators who can credibly communicate with our target audiences
- Rapid response message development and media consumption research
- Voter registration and mobilization efforts in targeted districts