Also:
- Most people have negative views of both parties, with opinion nearly evenly divided on which party to regard as responsible for government shutdown
- Three-quarters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the shutdown
- 70% favor extending tax credits for health insurance
- 68% or more in each party oppose mid-decade redistricting
- Trump approval highest for Israel-Hamas cease-fire and border security; lowest for handling of Epstein documents, shutdown, and economic aid to Argentina
Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll
MILWAUKEE —A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey, conducted following the Nov. 5 elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere, finds that 49% of registered voters expect to vote for a Democrat and 44% expect to vote for a Republican in congressional elections in 2026. Among those who say they are certain to vote, 53% say they will vote for a Democrat and 44% for a Republican.
Within party among registered voters, 91% of Republicans say they will vote for the Republican party’s candidate in their congressional district, while 96% of Democrats plan to support their party’s nominee. Independents heavily favor a Democratic candidate, 38%, compared to 17% favoring a Republican, while 39% of independents would vote for neither and 6% say they would not vote. This is on a “generic ballot” (i.e., no candidate names specified). These results are shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)
Table 1: Congressional vote, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Congressional vote | |||
| Democratic candidate | Republican candidate | Neither | Would not vote | |
| Republican | 4 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| Independent | 38 | 17 | 39 | 6 |
| Democrat | 96 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 5-12, 2025 | ||||
| Question: If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the (Democratic) candidate in your district or the (Republican) candidate in your district? | ||||
Democrats are somewhat more likely to say they are certain to vote, 75%, than are Republicans, 68%. Independents are much less certain to vote, 37%. Likelihood of voting by party is shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Likelihood of voting, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Likelihood of voting | |||
| Absolutely certain to vote | Very likely to vote | Chances are 50-50 | Don’t think will vote | |
| Republican | 68 | 19 | 9 | 4 |
| Independent | 37 | 27 | 22 | 14 |
| Democrat | 75 | 16 | 7 | 2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 5-12, 2025 | ||||
| Question: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2026 general election for congressional and state offices– are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote? | ||||
Of those who voted for Republican President Donald Trump in 2024, 71% are certain they will vote, while among those who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024, 82% are similarly certain to vote. Likewise, Harris voters are more supportive of the Democratic congressional candidate, 95%, than are Trump voters with respect to the Republican congressional candidate, 89%.
The poll was conducted Nov. 5-12, 2025, among 1,052 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points. There are 903 registered voters in the sample, with a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, and 602 likely voters—those who say they are certain to vote next November—with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. The poll was conducted entirely after the Nov. 4 elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere. Seven percent of the sample were interviewed after the Senate voted to end the federal government shutdown on Nov. 9, but all interviews were completed before the House voted on Nov. 12. The survey therefore does not capture reactions to the end of the shutdown.
Approval of how the congressional parties are handling their jobs has shifted modestly since September. Among all adults, approval of Republicans in Congress has been consistently higher than approval of Democrats, but that margin narrowed in the November poll, with support of Republicans declining and approval of Democrats rising. Table 3 shows approval of each party since March.
Table 3: Approval of congressional parties
Among adults
| Poll dates | Approval | ||
| Net | Approve | Disapprove | |
| Republicans in Congress | |||
| 11/5-12/25 | -20 | 40 | 60 |
| 9/15-24/25 | -16 | 42 | 58 |
| 7/7-16/25 | -16 | 42 | 58 |
| 5/5-15/25 | -14 | 43 | 57 |
| 3/17-27/25 | -10 | 45 | 55 |
| Democrats in Congress | |||
| 11/5-12/25 | -28 | 36 | 64 |
| 9/15-24/25 | -38 | 31 | 69 |
| 7/7-16/25 | -32 | 34 | 66 |
| 5/5-15/25 | -42 | 29 | 71 |
| 3/17-27/25 | -42 | 29 | 71 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Nov. 5-12, 2025 | |||
| Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way (Republicans/Democrats) in Congress are handling their job? | |||
The lower standing of Democrats has been largely due to discontent with the party among Democratic voters. In September, only 53% of Democrats approved of their party’s performance in Congress, while 80% of Republicans approved of their side. Independents strongly disapproved of both parties, though less so of the Democrats. Among independents, 74% disapproved of congressional Republicans and 68% disapproved of congressional Democrats. This was a consistent pattern from March through September.
In this November poll, Democrats became more positive toward their party in Congress, with approval rising to 64%, up from 53%, while Republican approval of their party only slightly changed to 79%, compared to 80% in September. Independents became a bit more negative toward both parties. The results by party for the September and November polls are shown in Table 4.
Table 4: Approval of congressional parties, by party identification
Among adults
| Party ID | Approval | |||
| Poll dates | Net | Approve | Disapprove | |
| Republicans in Congress | ||||
| Republican | 11/5-12/25 | 58 | 79 | 21 |
| Republican | 9/15-24/25 | 60 | 80 | 20 |
| Independent | 11/5-12/25 | -60 | 20 | 80 |
| Independent | 9/15-24/25 | -48 | 26 | 74 |
| Democrat | 11/5-12/25 | -88 | 6 | 94 |
| Democrat | 9/15-24/25 | -86 | 7 | 93 |
| Democrats in Congress | ||||
| Republican | 11/5-12/25 | -82 | 9 | 91 |
| Republican | 9/15-24/25 | -80 | 10 | 90 |
| Independent | 11/5-12/25 | -42 | 29 | 71 |
| Independent | 9/15-24/25 | -36 | 32 | 68 |
| Democrat | 11/5-12/25 | 28 | 64 | 36 |
| Democrat | 9/15-24/25 | 6 | 53 | 47 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Nov. 5-12, 2025 | ||||
| Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way (Republicans/Democrats) in Congress are handling their job? | ||||
Republicans are seen as more responsible for the government shutdown at 36%, Democrats are seen as more responsible by 33%, and 31% say the parties are equally responsible. Partisans strongly blame the other party for the shutdown, with 67% of Republicans saying the Democrats are responsible and only 7% blaming their own party, while among Democrats 72% say Republicans are responsible and just 5% blame Democrats. A majority of independents, 75%, say both parties are equally responsible.
Approval of Trump’s handling of the shutdown stands at 25%, with disapproval at 75%. Notably, 51% of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the shutdown, while 49% approve. Disapproval is high among independents and Democrats, as shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Approval of Trump’s handling of the shutdown, by party identification
Among adults
| Party ID | Approval | |
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Republican | 49 | 51 |
| Independent | 14 | 86 |
| Democrat | 5 | 95 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 5-12, 2025 | ||
| Question: [The shutdown of the federal government] Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling each of the following issues? | ||
On an issue that Democrats stressed during the shutdown, 70% say the tax credits for the health care marketplace should be extended, while 30% say they should be allowed to expire. A majority of Republicans, 55%, say the tax credits should expire, while 76% of independents and 93% of Democrats say they should be extended.
A majority of Americans also have a favorable view of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), 55%, with 39% unfavorable and 6% who say they haven’t heard enough. A majority of Republicans view it unfavorably, 72%, while the ACA is viewed favorably by 91% of Democrats. Among independents, 48% have a favorable opinion of the ACA and 35% an unfavorable one, with 17% saying they haven’t heard enough.
A majority of the public and a majority of each party are opposed to the mid-decade redistricting initiated by Trump in Republican states and subsequently adopted by California Democrats as well. Redistricting is opposed by 71% and favored by 28%. Since September, opposition has inched up only slightly from 70%. Yet opposition from Republicans rose from 62% in September to 70% in November, following California’s referendum allowing redistricting. Among Democrats, opposition declined from 80% in September to 73% in November. Independents barely changed over the last two months. Opinion of redistricting by party and over time is shown in Table 6.
Table 6: Opinion of mid-decade redistricting, by party identification
Among adults
| Poll dates | Favor or oppose redistricting | |
| Favor | Oppose | |
| Republican | ||
| 11/5-12/25 | 30 | 70 |
| 9/15-24/25 | 38 | 62 |
| Independent | ||
| 11/5-12/25 | 31 | 68 |
| 9/15-24/25 | 31 | 69 |
| Democrat | ||
| 11/5-12/25 | 27 | 73 |
| 9/15-24/25 | 20 | 80 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Nov. 5-12, 2025 | ||
| Question: Texas has redrawn its congressional districts to create more seats Republicans are likely to win. California is doing the same to create more seats Democrats are likely to win. Several other states are also considering drawing new districts. Do you favor or oppose states, outside the normal ten-year census cycle, redrawing their congressional districts to make them as advantageous as possible for the party with the majority in the state? | ||
Presidential approval
Overall approval of Trump’s job performance stands at 43%, with disapproval at 57%, which is unchanged from September. Approval is lower than at the beginning of his second term in February, when 48% approved and 52% disapproved. The full trend is shown in Table 7.
Table 7: Trump approval
Among adults
| Poll dates | Approval | ||
| Net | Approve | Disapprove | |
| 11/5-12/25 | -14 | 43 | 57 |
| 9/15-24/25 | -14 | 43 | 57 |
| 7/7-16/25 | -10 | 45 | 55 |
