First bi-annual report shows signs of a gradual economic cooling emerging, with forecasted trends pointing to softer employment gains and rising housing costs
MILWAUKEE — The Center for Applied Economics in Marquette University’s College of Business Administration released its first Economic Scorecard for Southeastern Wisconsin, which shows Wisconsin and the Milwaukee metro area are continuing to outperform national economic averages. Signs of a gradual economic cooling are emerging with forecasted trends pointing to softer employment gains and rising housing costs.
- The Economic Scorecard for Southeastern Wisconsin is available online.
The Economic Scorecard finds that Wisconsin is in a good economic position relative to the nation. Overall, total state income in Wisconsin is growing at a faster rate relative to the national Gross Domestic Product — as of 2024 Q4, Wisconsin’s annualized real GDP was approximately $357.3 billion, accounting for roughly 1.52% of the national economy. The unemployment rate in the state (3.1%) and in the Milwaukee metro region (3.0%) remains well below the national average of 4.1%.
“The local labor market in the Milwaukee metro region remains strong since the COVID-19 pandemic rebound, and we see signs of stabilization,” said Dr. Nicholas A. Jolly, associate professor of economics and a co-author of the scorecard. “Growth in employment is positive, yet slowing; the large declines in manufacturing employment are slowing; and average hourly earnings are projected to rise, but at a slower rate.”
While the Milwaukee metro region is in a good position relative to the national average, the scorecard expects labor market conditions to moderate throughout the next six months. While non-farm payroll employment is expected to grow through October, it will remain lower than the level reached in October of 2024. Manufacturing employment in the metro area, which has been declining since mid-2022, is expected to stabilize; however, there is no expected growth in this figure when comparing October 2025 to October 2024. Average hourly earnings are expected to continue their climb, from $35.79 in March 2025 to an expected $35.98 by October 2025.
“While the Milwaukee metro area’s economic fundamentals remain strong, signs of moderation are emerging,” said co-author Dr. Grace Wang, professor of economics and director of the Center for Applied Economics. “Wage growth is stabilizing. Non-farm employment is growing modestly, suggesting that hiring momentum is slowing even as unemployment remains low. Businesses should continue to monitor housing affordability and workforce availability as important factors.”
Median home listing prices in Milwaukee continue to rise. Despite a slight national decline (-0.44%) in median home listing prices, Wisconsin’s average median price rose by 4.5%, reaching $381,281 in 2024. The Milwaukee metropolitan area saw even stronger growth, with the average median listing price climbing 5.56% to $376,991. This above-average growth in Milwaukee may create challenges for local employers. As housing costs rise, it can become more difficult for potential employees, especially those with lower incomes, to afford to live in the area.
The Economic Scorecard for Southeastern Wisconsin is a semiannual report produced by Jolly and Wang of the Center for Applied Economics, with assistance from research analysts Eva Beeth, Thomas Dierbach and Lisa Gandolfi. The scorecard provides a snapshot of the current economic climate in Wisconsin, with a particular focus on the Milwaukee-Waukesha metropolitan statistical area. It offers six-month forecasts for key indicators such as employment, wages and housing prices, which will help policymakers, businesses and local stakeholders make more informed decisions.
“The purpose of this report is to provide the interested reader with a general understanding as to the current economic climate for the Milwaukee metro area and how it compares to the state of Wisconsin and the nation more broadly,” wrote Jolly and Wang. “Importantly, our goal is to forecast where economic indicators are trending into the future. To that end, we are presenting economic forecasts for several indicators through October 2025. It is our hope that this information will be useful for policymakers, businesses and the broader public.”
Methodology
The current economic conditions presented in the Economic Scorecard for Southeastern Wisconsin are based on publicly available data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the National Association of Realtors. All reported data points, such as GDP growth rates, unemployment rates and housing prices for 2024, reflect actual values as published by these agencies.
The forecasts for non-farm employment, manufacturing employment, retail employment, average hourly earnings and median home listing prices are produced using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling approach.
While ARIMA models offer robust short-term forecasts, events such as policy shifts, geopolitical risks or technological changes could cause actual future outcomes to diverge from these projections.
About Marquette University
Marquette University is a Catholic, Jesuit university located near the heart of downtown Milwaukee that offers a comprehensive range of majors in 11 nationally and internationally recognized colleges and schools. Through the formation of hearts and minds, Marquette prepares our 11,100 undergraduate, graduate, doctoral and professional students to lead, excel and serve as agents of positive change. And, we deliver results. Ranked in the top 20% of national universities, Marquette is recognized for its undergraduate teaching, innovation and career preparation as the sixth-best university in the country for job placement. Our focus on student success and immersive, personalized learning experiences encourages students to think critically and engage with the world around them. When students graduate with a Marquette degree, they are truly prepared and called to Be The Difference.
