MADISON, Wis. — A report published yesterday confirmed that Senator Rob Hutton (SD-5) is the most vulnerable Republican in the Wisconsin State Senate. After analyzing vote margins in his senate district from the 2024 cycle and 2025 state Supreme Court race, the report states Sen. Hutton’s district is one of the two most flippable seats in Wisconsin this cycle.
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:Is a Republican who voted against [the] state budget in one of Wisconsin’s most flippable seats?
By: Hope Karnopp
Key points below:
- Democrats are already looking ahead to the fall 2026 elections, when they’ll have more chances to pick up seats in the state Legislature, and perhaps flip control of the state Senate.
- The State Senate Democratic Committee is already eyeing one competitive seat, held by Republican state Sen. Rob Hutton of Brookfield.“Senator Hutton is in the most flippable Senate seat in Wisconsin,” the SSDC, which works to get Democrats elected to the chamber, posted on X on June 27, 2025.
- Wisconsin voters are likely to hear lots about toss-up legislative seats and how incumbents voted on policies in the budget.
- Let’s determine whether Hutton’s district, which includes communities west of Milwaukee like Brookfield, Wauwatosa, Pewaukee and West Allis, is truly the most competitive.
Democrats point to Harris’, Baldwin’s margins in the district
- We contacted the SSDC, which said it ran the math based on voting results from the 2024 presidential and Senate elections.
- Democrats see two other seats as competitive, those held by Sen. Howard Marklein of Spring Green and Sen. Van Wanggaard of Racine. Both Republicans voted for the budget.
- The question for us is whether Hutton’s seat is more competitive than the other two.
- Based on the committee’s math, former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin carried Hutton’s district by a higher percentage than they carried the other two districts.
- In Hutton’s district, about 6,500 more voters cast ballots for Harris than President Donald Trump, compared to around 1,000 in the two other districts.
- And around 5,400 more voters in Hutton’s district voted for Baldwin over Republican candidate Eric Hovde, significantly more than in the other two competitive districts.
Crawford’s margin also factored in
- The SSDC didn’t provide a breakdown of the district’s voting pattern in the state Supreme Court race, but said liberal Justice Susan Crawford’s performance in Hutton’s district added to its conclusion.
- John Johnson, a research fellow at Marquette University, did a similar analysis. His findings confirmed that Harris and Baldwin performed better in Hutton’s district than in three other battleground districts.
- Meanwhile, Johnson found Crawford carried Hutton’s district by double digits – Crawford actually had a higher margin in Marklein’s district.
- We’re getting way into the details, but all this supports Democrats’ claim that Hutton’s district is at least one of the two most flippable in Wisconsin.
With old district lines, Hutton won by about seven points
- Of course, races for the state Legislature are different than those for president, Senate and state Supreme Court.
- We can’t look at how much Hutton won by in 2024 in his new seat, because he wasn’t on the ballot last year. In 2022, when his district lines were different, he won by about seven percentage points.
- PolitiFact Wisconsin asked Hutton for further comment but didn’t hear back.
Our ruling
- The State Senate Democratic Committee said Hutton “is in the most flippable Senate seat in Wisconsin.”
- Calculations from the SSDC and an independent researcher confirm Harris and Baldwin carried Hutton’s district by a higher percentage than two other competitive districts held by Republicans.
- And while Crawford performed slightly better in one of those other battlegrounds, she still carried Hutton’s district by a significant margin.
- None of this confirms Hutton’s seat will turn blue next year, but it is likely the Senate’s most competitive seat. We rate the claim True.
