Berman campaign: Berman leading Steil in new poll

Racine, WI — A new House Majority PAC poll shows ER nurse Mitchell Berman leading Republican Bryan Steil, 48-47. Berman is building momentum after a DCCC Analytics poll just last week showed the race even (48-48). Despite over $4.5 million already spent by Steil and Republicans, Berman is now in the lead.

The HMP poll marks the third poll that has the race within 1 point. (The first public polling of the general election, published in August by the Berman campaign, had shown Berman narrowly trailing Steil, 49-48.)

Public polling to date, WI-01

Three public polls have been released in the general election; all three show the race within 1 point.

The race is quickly developing, with the DCCC recently adding the district to its Red-to-Blue list of the most competitive seats in the country, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifting the district from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” The district voted for Trump by 4.5 points in 2024, but has since swung hard back towards Democrats. Earlier this year, Supreme Court Justice Chris Taylor won the district by nearly 15 points, and generic ballot polling has consistently shown the race within a few points.

Republicans have already poured over $4.5 million into the race in an attempt to prop up Steil and attack Berman. The Trump-backed No Going Back PAC has spent over $350,000 and a new crypto-backed Super PAC, Wisconsin Working PAC, is spending over $500,000. Despite the flood of dark money, Steil is losing ground.

This latest poll comes as Steil faces growing backlash over his efforts to preserve stock trading loopholes for members of Congress. Steil’s net worth has more than doubled since he was first elected in 2018, and his stock portfolio had the fourth largest gains of any member of Congress. While Steil enriches himself, Mitchell Berman is focused on tackling corruption and making life affordable for families in Southeast Wisconsin.

Just last week, Berman and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a new ad in which he slams Bryan Steil for more than doubling his net worth while in Congress. The ad is part of the committee’s coordinated ad spending in key battleground districts.

Born and raised in a one-stoplight town in rural Wisconsin, Mitchell Berman learned the values of community, integrity, and hard work from his parents. He was the first in his family to graduate college, working three jobs and taking out student loans to earn his degree. Determined to build a life through grit and perseverance, not privilege, he started working at age 12 and became a union member while in college. Berman is an emergency room nurse who has served veterans at the VA for more than a decade. A devoted husband and father, he’s running for Congress to put people over politics, and to fight for Wisconsin families.

The First Congressional District is one of the most competitive in the country. The district encompasses Janesville, Kenosha, Racine, Beloit, Elkhorn, Whitewater, and the Milwaukee suburbs of Cudahy, St. Francis, and South Milwaukee. In 2024, Donald Trump carried the swing district narrowly with just 51 percent of the vote. In both the 2023 and 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court elections, Justices Janet Protasiewicz and Susan Crawford won the district handily by 6- and 6.5-point margins, respectively, and Justice Chris Taylor carried the district by over ~15 points in April 2026. Learn more at BermanForCongress.com.