Marquette University Law School: Marquette Law Poll finds Crowley leading Tiffany among likely voters, tied among all registered voters

Also:

• Democrats more likely to vote, more Republicans enthusiastic to vote
• Democrats feature greater party loyalty with 98% likely voters supporting Crowley, although enthusiasm is low among Hong supporters
• Most voters see themselves as more moderate than either candidate
• Inflation, cost of living, and negative views of the economy are dominant issues for voters
• Opposition to data centers remains high; 67% would ban data centers for at least a year
• Views are mixed on the job that public schools are doing, with a downward trend over the past dozen-plus years
• Views also mixed on how to pay for schools

Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin finds Democrat David Crowley leading Republican Tom Tiffany among likely voters by 49% to 44%, with 7% undecided. The race for governor, which will come to a head with the election on Nov. 3, is tied among all registered voters at 44% each, with 12% undecided.

This is Marquette’s first survey following the primary elections on Aug. 11.

Some of the gap between the results for likely and registered voters is due to a slight Democratic advantage in commitment to voting in November, with 84% of Democrats saying they are certain to vote. Among Republicans, 82% are certain they will vote, while 59% of independents say the same. (The group of “likely voters” in this release, as traditionally in the Marquette Law School Poll, consists of those who say they are certain to vote.)

At this stage of the campaign, an additional Democratic advantage among likely voters is greater Democratic party loyalty in supporting the party’s nominee for governor, as well as support for Crowley among independents who are likely to vote. Likely voters among independents favor Crowley more than does the full registered-voter sample.

Among likely Democratic voters, 98% say they will vote for Crowley, while 91% of likely Republican voters say they will vote for Tiffany. Likely independent voters prefer Crowley by 55% to 16% for Tiffany. In comparison, among all registered voters, Crowley wins 93% from Democrats, Tiffany wins 90% of Republicans, and Crowley leads among independents, 35% to 18% for Tiffany.

Considerably more independents say they are undecided than within either partisan camp. These comparisons are shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Vote for governor, by party identification

Among likely voters and registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Tom Tiffany	David Crowley	Haven’t decided
Likely voters
Among all likely voters	44	49	7
Republican	91	3	6
Independent	16	55	30
Democrat	0	98	2
Registered voters
Among all registered voters	44	44	12
Republican	90	3	7
Independent	18	35	47
Democrat	1	93	6
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 12-20, 2026
Question: If the election for governor were held today between (Tom Tiffany, the Republican), and (David Crowley, the Democrat), would you vote for (Tom Tiffany) or for (David Crowley) or haven’t you decided?

The survey was conducted Aug. 12-20, 2026, interviewing 891 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 738 with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Despite the Democratic advantage in reported likelihood of voting, more Republicans say they are very enthusiastic about voting, 55%, than Democrats, 49%, among registered voters. This margin is higher among likely voters, with 66% of Republicans enthusiastic as opposed to 58% among Democrats.

This gap in Democratic enthusiasm may reflect less enthusiasm among supporters of State Rep. Francesca Hong, who narrowly lost the primary race for the Democratic nomination to Crowley. Among Democratic registered voters with a favorable opinion of Hong, 52% are very enthusiastic about voting, while among those favorable to Crowley, 63% are very enthusiastic. Similarly, among Democrats favorable to former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who dropped out of the race before the primary, 61% are very enthusiastic. This lessened enthusiasm among those favorable to Hong does not result in more support for Tiffany in the governor’s race, with 98% of Democrats favorable to Hong voting for Crowley and none crossing over to vote for Tiffany.

In the legislative races for state Senate and Assembly, 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate, while 45% say they will vote for the Republican. As with the vote for governor, this legislative vote is tied at 44% each among all registered voters.

Views of candidates

Crowley is viewed favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 29%, while a substantial 38% say they haven’t heard enough about him. Tiffany is seen favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 42%, with 18% unable to say.

The candidates for attorney general are far less well known than either of the candidates for governor, with 61% saying they haven’t heard enough about Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul and 80% unable to give an opinion of Republican challenger Eric Toney. Among those with opinions, both candidates are viewed a bit more favorably than unfavorably.

These favorability opinions are shown, along with views of Hong and Barnes, in Table 2.

Table 2: Favorability of gubernatorial and Attorney General candidates

Among registered voters

Candidate
	Name ID	Net Fav	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
David Crowley	62	4	33	29	38
Tom Tiffany	81	-3	39	42	18
Francesca Hong	79	-27	26	53	21
Mandela Barnes	61	-19	21	40	37
Josh Kaul	36	4	20	16	61
Eric Toney	18	2	10	8	80
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey Aug. 12-20, 2026
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT NAME] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?)
Note: Name ID is the percentage that have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidate. Net favorable is the percentage favorable minus the percentage unfavorable.

Most registered voters see themselves toward the center of the political spectrum rather than at either ideological extreme. Equal numbers say they are either very conservative, 10%, or very liberal, 10%. Thirty-one percent say they are conservative, and 15% say they are liberal. Just over a third, 34%, describe themselves as moderate.

In contrast to how voters see themselves, they place Tiffany well to the right ideologically and Crowley somewhat less far to the left. More are unable to place Crowley than are unable to place Tiffany.

Tiffany is described as very conservative by 37%, conservative by 39%, and moderate by 5%. Very few say he is liberal, while 15% say they haven’t heard enough to place him ideologically.

For Crowley, 16% say he is very liberal, with 32% calling him liberal and 23% saying he is moderate. Few consider him conservative, but 26% say they haven’t heard enough. These results are shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Ideology of respondent and of candidates

Among registered voters

Who	Ideology
	Very conservative	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal	Very liberal	Haven’t heard enough
Self-placement	10	31	34	15	10	NA
Tiffany	37	39	5	2	0	15
Crowley	1	2	23	32	16	26
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 12-20, 2026
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…
Question: In general, would you describe [candidate name] as…?

Tiffany is described as a MAGA Republican by 69% and as not a MAGA Republican by 28%, with 2% who don’t know. Among those who think of themselves as a member of the MAGA movement, 72% say Tiffany is also a MAGA Republican. That is only slightly more than the 69% of non-MAGA Republicans who see Tiffany as a MAGA Republican. Among all registered voters, 24% say they are members of the MAGA movement.

Hong is seen as a democratic socialist by 84% of registered voters, and as a socialist by 91% of those who describe themselves as democratic socialists. Those who do not identify themselves as socialists are less inclined to describe Hong as a socialist, with 82% of these respondents saying Hong is a democratic socialist. Among all registered voters, 19% think of themselves as democratic socialists.

Views of the parties

The Republican Party is seen more favorably than the Democratic Party by registered voters, with 42% favorable to Republicans and 35% favorable to Democrats. There is a difference in favorability within the parties that accounts for much of this gap. Among Republicans, 85% are favorable to their party, while 74% of Democrats feel favorable to their party. Each is extremely negative toward the other party, while independents are slightly more favorable to the Democratic than the Republican party. This unease within the Democratic party has accounted for much of the overall worse opinion of the Democratic Party throughout polling this year. The favorability ratings by party are shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Favorability to political parties

Among registered voters

Party ID	Favorability
	Net Fav	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
The Republican Party
Among all registered voters	-11	42	53	5
Republican	73	85	12	2
Independent	-39	18	57	22
Democrat	-96	1	97	2
The Democratic Party
Among all registered voters	-24	35	59	6
Republican	-95	2	97	1
Independent	-31	22	53	24
Democrat	53	74	21	5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey Aug. 12-20, 2026
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT NAME] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?
Note: Net favorable is the percentage favorable minus the percentage unfavorable.

Among registered voters, 49% say the Republican party in Wisconsin is too conservative, while 33% say it is about right. For the Democratic party, 52% say it is too liberal, with 26% saying it is about right. Among Republicans, 58% say the Republican party is about right for them, while 47% of Democrats say their party is about right.

Table 5 shows how partisans feel about the ideological lean of each party, with more Democrats saying their party is too moderate or too conservative, 40%, than Republicans saying their party is too moderate or liberal, 25%.

Table 5: Perception of party ideology, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Party ideology
	Too conservative	Too moderate	Too liberal	About right for me
Republican party
Among all registered voters	49	10	7	33
Republican	16	16	9	58
Independent	47	9	6	34
Democrat	87	4	4	6
Democratic party
Among all registered voters	7	12	52	26
Republican	1	1	93	4
Independent	5	10	40	37
Democrat	14	26	12	47
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 12-20, 2026
Question: As far as you are concerned, is the Republican party in Wisconsin (too conservative), (too moderate), or (too liberal) or is it about right for you?
Question: As far as you are concerned, is the Democratic party in Wisconsin (too conservative), (too moderate), or (too liberal) or is it about right for you?

Wisconsinites see the parties as helping the working class and the middle class about equally, but a substantial majority say the Republicans are doing more for the upper class. About a third say neither party does much for either the working class or the middle class.

Among partisans, around two-thirds of registered voters say their own party does more for the working and middle classes, while seeing the other party as doing little. Among independents, more than two-thirds say neither party does much to help the working or middle class.

As for helping the upper class, more people of each party see this as something the Republican party does more.

These results are shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Which party helps working, middle, and upper classes, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Which party helps
	Democratic Party	Republican Party	Neither does much
Helps working class
Among all registered voters	34	31	34
Republican	4	66	28
Independent	24	3	70
Democrat	70	1	29
Helps middle class
Among all registered voters	31	30	38
Republican	4	63	31
Independent	26	4	69
Democrat	62	1	37
Helps upper class
Among all registered voters	11	62	24
Republican	22	39	37
Independent	6	48	40
Democrat	2	92	6
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 12-20, 2026
Question: Does the (Democratic party) or the (Republican party) do more to help working-class people, or does neither party do much to help working-class people?
Question: Does the (Democratic party) or the (Republican party) do more to help middle-class people, or does neither party do much to help middle-class people?
Question: Does the (Democratic party) or the (Republican party) do more to help upper-class people, or does neither party do much to help upper-class people?

Most important issues

Inflation and the cost of living remains by far the most frequently cited problem facing voters, with 43% saying it is most important to them. Immigration and border security is a distant second at 12%. The next four issues are each related to the cost of living, including health insurance, jobs and the economy, property taxes, and the affordability of housing. Ranking the lowest are data centers, abortion policy, public schools, and crime in the respondent’s community.

When asked which is the second-most important issue, inflation and the cost of living remains at the top, followed by jobs and the economy, health insurance, immigration and border security, and property taxes, again demonstrating the salience of issues related to expenses and financial issues. These ratings are shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Most important issue

Among registered voters

Issue
	Percent most important	Percent 2nd most important
Inflation and the cost of living	43	19
Illegal immigration and border security	12	11
Health insurance	10	13
Jobs and the economy	7	17
Property taxes	6	9
Affordability of housing	6	8
Data centers	5	7
Abortion policy	4	5
Public schools	3	5
Crime in your community	1	5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 12-20, 2026
Question: Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?
Question: And which is the second most important issue to you right now?

Specific economic concerns echo the general concern about economic circumstances. During the second term of President Donald Trump, the percentage of Wisconsin voters saying they are better off—rather than worse off—improved from February 2025 to February 2026 but has taken a downward turn since then. In this poll, 20% say they are better off than a year ago, while 38% say they are worse off. This is slightly improved from July, but notably worse than in February 2026. The changes in this condition are shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Better or worse off than a year ago

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Better or worse off
	Net better-worse	Better	About the same	Worse
8/12-20/26	-17	20	42	38
7/8-16/26	-21	18	43	39
3/11-18/26	-6	26	43	32
2/11-19/26	3	32	38	30
10/15-22/25	-3	28	42	30
2/19-26/25	-10	21	49	31
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Aug. 12-20, 2026
Question: Would you say you personally are better off, about the same, or worse off than you were a year ago?

A large majority, 69%, think inflation will increase over the next 12 months. Just 9% think it will decrease, and 21% think it will remain the same. Republicans are more optimistic than independents or Democrats, but even 43% of Republicans think inflation will rise, with only 19% saying it will decline. These expectations by party identification are shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Inflation expectation over next 12 months, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Inflation expectation
	Net increase-decrease	Increase	Decrease	Stay about the same
Among all registered voters	60	69	9	21
Republican	24	43	19	38
Independent	80	83	3	14
Democrat	93	94	1	5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 12-20, 2026
Question: Over the next 12 months do you think inflation and the cost of living will increase, decrease or stay about the same?

More than half of registered voters in each Marquette Law School Poll since June 2025 have said they think Trump’s policies will increase inflation, but this perception has grown over time as the number of those saying his policies will decrease inflation has declined. A brief increase in optimism about Trump’s influence on inflation was seen in February, days before the start of the war with Iran, with steady decline since then, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Effect of Trump policies on inflation

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Trump policy effect
	Net increase-decrease	Decrease inflation	Increase inflation	Have no effect on inflation
8/12-20/26	37	23	60	16
7/8-16/26	33	26	59	14
3/11-18/26	31	28	59	12
2/11-19/26	18	35	53	11
10/15-22/25	27	30	57	12
6/13-19/25	24	31	55	12
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Aug. 12-20, 2026
Question: Do you think Trump’s policy proposals will decrease inflation, increase inflation, or have no effect on inflation?

Views of the price of gasoline during the six months before each poll have dramatically changed from before the Iran war began to the present. In February, before the war started, 50% said the price they paid for gas had gone down and only 18% said the price had increased. In August, that is dramatically different, with 81% saying the price has gone up and just 7% saying it has gone down. What had been a bright spot in contributions to the cost of living in February is now one of the worst perceptions in views of the cost of living, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Change in gasoline prices

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Gas prices
	Net gone up-gone down	Gone down	Stayed about the same