Also:
- 61% of Wisconsin voters disapprove of attacks on Iran
- Trump’s job approval dips from February and net approval of Trump hits lowest point for either of his presidential terms
- 59% favor U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump over tariff authority
- Wisconsinites divided on election accuracy, but trust state and local officials over federal officials to run fair elections
Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin finds registered voters have begun to tune into the state Supreme Court election on April 7, but many remain undecided. Chris Taylor is the choice of 23% and Maria Lazar is supported by 17%, while 53% remain undecided and 7% say they won’t vote. In February, 66% were undecided with 17% for Taylor and 12% for Lazar.
Among likely voters, those who say they are certain to vote in April, 30% support Taylor and 22% favor Lazar, with 46% undecided. In February among likely voters, 22% supported Taylor and 15% chose Lazar, with 62% undecided.
More Republicans than Democrats remain undecided among registered voters. Republicans heavily prefer Lazar and Democrats heavily prefer Taylor. Independents lean to Taylor, though a sizable group of independents say they won’t vote in the Supreme Court election, as shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)
Table 1: Supreme Court vote, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | |||
| Maria Lazar | Chris Taylor | Haven’t decided | Will not vote in that election | |
| Among all registered voters | 17 | 23 | 53 | 7 |
| Republican | 30 | 6 | 59 | 6 |
| Independent | 11 | 16 | 49 | 23 |
| Democrat | 5 | 43 | 48 | 3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Mar. 11-18, 2026 | ||||
| Question: If the April 7 election for Wisconsin Supreme Court were being held today and the candidates were (Maria Lazar) and (Chris Taylor), for whom would you vote, or haven’t you decided yet, or will you not vote in that election? | ||||
The survey was conducted March 11-18, 2026, interviewing 850 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 597 with a margin of error of +/-5.3 percentage points.
Among likely voters, there are fewer undecided in each partisan category, though half of independents remain undecided. Republicans and Democrats are more strongly aligned with each candidate among likely voters, as shown in Table 2, than among all registered voters (as shown above in Table 1).
Table 2: Supreme Court vote, by party identification
Among likely voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | |||
| Maria Lazar | Chris Taylor | Haven’t decided | Will not vote in that election | |
| Among all likely voters | 22 | 30 | 46 | 1 |
| Republican | 44 | 7 | 48 | 2 |
| Independent | 17 | 26 | 50 | 6 |
| Democrat | 5 | 50 | 43 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Mar. 11-18, 2026 | ||||
| Question: If the April 7 election for Wisconsin Supreme Court were being held today and the candidates were (Maria Lazar) and (Chris Taylor), for whom would you vote, or haven’t you decided yet, or will you not vote in that election? | ||||
Registered voters have become somewhat more familiar with both candidates since October, though more than 60% continue to say they haven’t heard enough to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each candidate. These results are shown in Table 3.
Table 3: Favorability of Supreme Court candidates
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability | ||||
| Name ID | Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | |
| Lazar | |||||
| 3/11-18/26 | 31 | -5 | 13 | 18 | 68 |
| 2/11-19/26 | 22 | -4 | 9 | 13 | 77 |
| 10/15-22/25 | 15 | -1 | 7 | 8 | 84 |
| Taylor | |||||
| 3/11-18/26 | 35 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 64 |
| 2/11-19/26 | 25 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 74 |
| 10/15-22/25 | 16 | -2 | 7 | 9 | 83 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Mar. 11-18, 2026 | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT NAME] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?) | |||||
Similarly, the number of those saying they have a clear idea of what each candidate stands for has increased since October, but a large percentage remain either unclear or haven’t heard enough, as shown in Table 4.
Table 4: Clear idea what Supreme Court candidates stand for
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Clear idea | ||
| Have a clear idea | Not clear what she stands for | Haven’t heard enough | |
| Lazar | |||
| 3/11-18/26 | 25 | 24 | 51 |
| 2/11-19/26 | 15 | 23 | 62 |
| 10/15-22/25 | 10 | 21 | 69 |
| Taylor | |||
| 3/11-18/26 | 28 | 20 | 52 |
| 2/11-19/26 | 21 | 21 | 59 |
| 10/15-22/25 | 11 | 19 | 69 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Mar. 11-18, 2026 | |||
| Question: In the election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, do you have a clear idea of what Maria Lazar stands for, or are you not clear about what she stands for, or have you not heard enough about her yet? | |||
| Question: In the election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, do you have a clear idea of what Chris Taylor stands for, or are you not clear about what she stands for, or have you not heard enough about her yet? | |||
There has been an increase in the percentage who say they have heard or read a lot about the Supreme Court race since February, though it still falls far short of attention to the state Supreme Court race in 2025. In March, 12% have heard a lot, up from 6% in February. In February 2025, however, 39% had heard a lot about that race.
More voters have heard “just a little” about this year’s Court race, 57%, slightly changed from 55% in February. Those who have heard nothing at all has declined from 38% in February to 31% in March.
A substantial majority (75%) of registered voters incorrectly believe that this election can tip the ideological balance on the Court. In the 2025 court election, the ideological balance could have tipped depending on the outcome, and 83% correctly believed that. This year, to use terms commonly found in the press and popular discussion, liberals hold a 4-3 majority, with a retiring conservative justice, so the majority will either remain unchanged or increase to five liberals. In 2025, a retiring liberal justice on the 4-3 court meant that the ideological balance on the Court could have flipped had the conservative candidate won.
There is a considerable Democratic advantage in engagement with the Court election across several measures. Among Democrats, 77% say they are certain to vote, while 59% of Republicans and 53% of independents are certain they will vote. In February, Democrats had a smaller turnout advantage, with 73% certain to vote, as were 67% of Republicans and 62% of independents. With two weeks to go before the election, citizens may yet become mobilized to vote, but, in this survey’s measure, Democrats have the advantage.
Similarly, Democrats express greater enthusiasm for voting, with 51% saying they are very enthusiastic about voting in the April election, compared to 32% of Republicans and 19% of independents who say that.
A final measure of engagement is those saying the outcome of the Supreme Court election is very important to them. Among Democrats, 65% say it is very important, while 46% of Republicans and 24% of independents say the same.
This Democratic advantage in engagement with the court election is larger than a small Democratic edge in attention to politics in general. Among Democrats, 65% say they follow what’s going on in politics most of the time, only a little more than for Republicans at 60%. Independents are much less likely to follow politics than are partisans, with just 38% of independents saying they follow politics most of the time.
The attacks on Iran and use of the military
A majority, 61%, say they disapprove of the U.S. military attacks on Iran, ordered by President Donald Trump, that began on Feb. 28, while 39% approve of the action. Table 5 shows opinion by party identification, with three-quarters of Republicans approving of the attacks, almost all Democrats disapproving, and more than 70% of independents disapproving as well.
Table 5: Approval of attacks on Iran, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Approval | |
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Among all registered voters | 39 | 61 |
| Republican | 75 | 24 |
| Independent | 27 | 73 |
| Democrat | 3 | 97 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Mar. 11-18, 2026 | ||
| Question: Combined responses to: ‘Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. military attacks on Iran?’ and ‘Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump ordering the U.S. military attacks on Iran?’ | ||
Approval of the attacks on Iran was asked as a split-sample wording test, with half being asked if they approve of “U.S. military attacks on Iran” and half asked about “President Trump ordering U.S. military attacks on Iran.” The differences in results for the two wordings are small and not statistically significant, as shown in Table 6. For this reason, the answers are combined in the analysis above.
Table 6: Approval of attacks on Iran, by Trump mentioned or not
Among registered voters
| Question wording | Approval of attacks on Iran | |
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| No Trump mention | 40 | 59 |
| Trump mention | 37 | 62 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Mar. 11-18, 2026 | ||
| Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. military attacks on Iran? | ||
| Question: Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump ordering the U.S. military attacks on Iran? | ||
Some conservatives, such as Tucker Carlson, have criticized the attacks on Iran, raising questions of a potential split between Trump supporters. To examine how Republicans may differ on the Iran war, we distinguish Republicans who say they are favorable to the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, making up 78% of all Republicans, from those Republicans who are not favorable to MAGA, comprising 22% of all Republicans. MAGA Republicans are far more approving of the attacks on Iran, while a substantial majority of non-MAGA Republicans disapprove of the attacks, as shown in Table 7. Dissent within the GOP comes from those not part of the MAGA base, not from those who regard themselves as part of the MAGA movement.
Table 7: Approval of attacks on Iran, by MAGA or non-MAGA Republicans
Among Republican registered voters
| MAGA or non-MAGA | Approval of attacks on Iran | |
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Rep, MAGA | 88 | 11 |
| Rep, Non-MAGA | 28 | 72 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Mar. 11-18, 2026 | ||
| Question: Combined responses to: ‘Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. military attacks on Iran?’ and ‘Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump ordering the U.S. military attacks on Iran?’Question: [The Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of <<INSERT NAME>> or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? | ||
Prior to the attacks on Iran, in his second term, Trump has ordered the military to seize Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro and ordered air strikes on Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria, in addition to discussing possible use of the military to take possession of Greenland. To measure public reaction to these uses of the military, aside from the Iran situation, respondents were asked whether they support or oppose Trump using the U.S. military to force changes in other countries. This question was asked earlier in the survey than the questions on Iran.
Thirty-five percent support using the military to force change in other countries, while 64% are opposed. Table 8 shows these responses by party identification, with Republicans divided by those who are favorable to MAGA and those not favorable to MAGA. The MAGA Republicans strongly support the use of force, while Republicans who are not favorable to MAGA are very similar to independents, with large majorities opposed to the use of force. Virtually all Democrats oppose using the military to force change in other countries.
Table 8: Use of military to force change, by party and MAGA
Among registered voters
| Party ID with MAGA | Approval of use of military force | |
| Support | Oppose | |
| Republican, MAGA | 83 | 16 |
| Republican, Non-MAGA | 20 | 80 |
| Independent | 22 | 78 |
| Democrat | 3 | 97 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Mar. 11-18, 2026 | ||
| Question: In general, do you support or oppose President Trump using the U.S. military to force changes in other countries? | ||
Trump’s overall job approval in March is 42% with 56% disapproving, a 2-point decline in approval and 2-point increase in disapproval from February. This brings his net approval (approve minus disapprove) to -14 percentage points. The previous lowest net approval of Trump in his first or second term was -12 points in September 2018. Table 9 shows Trump’s approval in his second term.
Table 9: Trump job approval
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Job approval | ||
| Net | Approve | Disapprove | |
| 3/11-18/26 | -14 | 42 | 56 |
| 2/11-19/26 | -10 | 44 | 54 |
| 10/15-22/25 | -7 | 46 | 53 |
