Crowley 47%, Tiffany 44% among registered voters as Democrats maintain enthusiasm and projected turnout advantage
Also:
- Crowley seen as doing more on healthcare costs, education, and data centers; Tiffany as doing more on taxes
- 60% prefer governor and legislature of the same party, 38% favor divided government
- Trump job approval declines to 37%; disapproval at 61%
- Opinion remains sour on economy, inflation, and gas and grocery prices
- First Marquette Law School Poll set of sports questions find lots of fans of the Packers (54%) and Brewers (49%), with more than 75% at least a casual fan of each
Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll
MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds that, among those who describe themselves as certain to vote for governor on or before Nov. 3, Democrat David Crowley is the choice of 51% and Republican Tom Tiffany the choice of 44%, with 4% undecided. Among all registered voters, Crowley is the choice of 47% and Tiffany is supported by 44%, with 9% undecided. In September, Crowley had 49% and Tiffany 46% of likely voters, and, among registered voters, Crowley had 46% and Tiffany 45%.
Crowley leads with those who are absolutely certain they will vote or have already done so (the group classified as “likely voters”), while Tiffany leads among those who say they are not certain but very likely to vote, as well as among those who say they may not or won’t vote.
The results for all registered voters include everyone in the survey, regardless of likelihood of voting. If the electorate expands from those most likely to vote to include those less than certain to vote, the race tightens. Higher turnout than currently expected results in a closer race. This is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)
Table 1: Vote for governor, by likelihood of voting
Among registered voters
| Likelihood of voting | Vote choice | ||
| Tom Tiffany | David Crowley | Haven’t decided | |
| October 2026 | |||
| Among all registered voters | 44 | 47 | 9 |
| Absolutely certain + already voted (= ‘likely voters’) | 44 | 51 | 4 |
| Very likely but not certain | 42 | 30 | 28 |
| May not/will not vote | 45 | 35 | 20 |
| September 2026 | |||
| Among all registered voters | 45 | 46 | 9 |
| Absolutely certain + already voted (= ‘likely voters’) | 46 | 49 | 5 |
| Very likely but not certain | 47 | 32 | 21 |
| May not/will not vote | 36 | 37 | 26 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, Oct. 14-22, 2026, and Sept. 16-23, 2026 | |||
| Question: If the election for governor were held today between (Tom Tiffany, the Republican), and (David Crowley, the Democrat), would you vote for (Tom Tiffany) or for (David Crowley) or haven’t you decided? | |||
| Question: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2026 elections for governor, Congress and other offices– are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote, or have you already voted by absentee ballot? | |||
The survey was conducted Oct. 14-22, 2026, interviewing 818 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 points for each candidate’s percentage. For likely voters, the sample size is 668 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 points for each candidate’s percentage.
The margin of error for the difference between the two candidates is thus twice the margin of error for the individual percentages. The leads among both likely voters and registered voters here are within the margin of error for the difference.
In September, Crowley had a one-point advantage among registered voters, 46% to 45%. In October his support rose by one point and Tiffany’s declined by one point, resulting in a 3-point edge. Among likely voters in September, Crowley had 49% and Tiffany 46%, with Crowley gaining 2 points and Tiffany losing 2 points in October, for a net gain of 4 points, to a 7-point lead in October.
More detail about these shifts is seen by party identification. Among likely voters, Republican support for Tiffany slipped from 95% in September to 92% in October, while Democratic support for Crowley rose from 96% to 98%. There are very few undecided voters among partisans.
Among independents, Crowley support increased from 44% in September to 56% in October, while Tiffany support grew from 18% to 26%. Those independents who were undecided declined from 38% in September to 18% in October, still leaving almost one-in-five independents yet to choose a candidate.
Among registered voters, Republican support for Tiffany slipped 3 points as Democratic support for Crowley was unchanged. Tiffany gained 6 points with independents and Crowley gained 4 points, but a large percentage of independents remain undecided among registered voters. These results are shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Vote for governor, by party identification
Among likely voters and registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | ||
| Tom Tiffany | David Crowley | Haven’t decided | |
| October 2026 — Likely voters | |||
| Among all likely voters | 44 | 51 | 4 |
| Republican | 92 | 4 | 3 |
| Independent | 26 | 56 | 18 |
| Democrat | 0 | 98 | 2 |
| October 2026 — Registered voters | |||
| Among all registered voters | 44 | 47 | 9 |
| Republican | 89 | 4 | 7 |
| Independent | 25 | 44 | 32 |
| Democrat | 1 | 95 | 4 |
| September 2026 — Likely voters | |||
| Among all likely voters | 46 | 49 | 5 |
| Republican | 95 | 4 | 2 |
| Independent | 18 | 44 | 38 |
| Democrat | 3 | 96 | 1 |
| September 2026 — Registered voters | |||
| Among all registered voters | 45 | 46 | 9 |
| Republican | 92 | 3 | 5 |
| Independent | 19 | 40 | 41 |
| Democrat | 2 | 95 | 3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, Oct. 14-22, 2026, and Sept. 16-23, 2026 | |||
| Question: If the election for governor were held today between (Tom Tiffany, the Republican), and (David Crowley, the Democrat), would you vote for (Tom Tiffany) or for (David Crowley) or haven’t you decided? | |||
Among likely voters, the legislative vote closely mirrors the vote for governor, with 51% saying they will vote for the Democratic legislative candidate and 44% for the Republican. Among registered voters, 47% support the Democrat and 45% favor the Republican, as shown in Table 3.
Table 3: Vote for the state legislature, by party identification
Among likely voters and registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | ||
| Republican candidate | Democratic candidate | Haven’t decided | |
| October 2026 — Likely voters | |||
| Among all likely voters | 44 | 51 | 5 |
| Republican | 92 | 3 | 5 |
| Independent | 22 | 62 | 17 |
| Democrat | 0 | 98 | 2 |
| October 2026 — Registered voters | |||
| Among all registered voters | 45 | 47 | 8 |
| Republican | 90 | 2 | 7 |
| Independent | 27 | 45 | 28 |
| Democrat | 1 | 96 | 3 |
| September 2026 — Likely voters | |||
| Among all likely voters | 45 | 48 | 7 |
| Republican | 92 | 2 | 5 |
| Independent | 26 | 38 | 35 |
| Democrat | 1 | 96 | 3 |
| September 2026 — Registered voters | |||
| Among all registered voters | 44 | 45 | 10 |
| Republican | 91 | 2 | 7 |
| Independent | 21 | 35 | 43 |
| Democrat | 1 | 95 | 4 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, Oct. 14-22, 2026, and Sept. 16-23, 2026 | |||
| Question: If the election for the Wisconsin state legislature were held today, would you vote for the (Republican) candidate in your district or the (Democratic) candidate in your district? | |||
Majorities of both Republican and Democratic voters say they prefer to have the governor and legislature of the same party, rather than have divided government. Among all registered voters, 60% prefer unified control and 38% favor divided government. Among Republicans, 59% prefer unified control, as do 65% of Democrats. Independents are evenly divided on this question, with 49% in favor of one-party control and 49% in favor of divided control. This is shown in Table 4.
Table 4: Same-party or divided state government, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Which is better | |
| Governor and legislature of same party | Governor and legislature of different parties | |
| Among all registered voters | 60 | 38 |
| Republican | 59 | 39 |
| Independent | 49 | 49 |
| Democrat | 65 | 34 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 14-22, 2026 | ||
| Question: Which is better, (a governor and legislature of the same party) or (a governor and legislature of different parties)? | ||
Turnout and enthusiasm
Democrats retain an advantage in likelihood of voting, with 84% saying they are certain to vote or have already done so, while 77% of Republicans say the same. That is a 1-point decrease since September for each party. Sixty-four percent of independents are certain they will vote, a 3-point increase. The results are shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Likelihood of voting, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Likelihood of voting | |||
| Absolutely certain | Very likely | 50-50 | Will not vote | |
| October 2026 | ||||
| Among all registered voters | 78 | 12 | 8 | 2 |
| Republican | 77 | 12 | 8 | 3 |
| Independent | 64 | 24 | 11 | 1 |
| Democrat | 84 | 9 | 6 | 1 |
| September 2026 | ||||
| Among all registered voters | 79 | 13 | 7 | 2 |
| Republican | 78 | 14 | 6 | 1 |
| Independent | 61 | 23 | 10 | 5 |
| Democrat | 85 | 8 | 6 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, Oct. 14-22, 2026, and Sept. 16-23, 2026 | ||||
| Question: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2026 elections for governor, Congress and other offices– are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote, or have you already voted by absentee ballot? | ||||
| Note: “Absolutely certain” includes those who have already voted | ||||
Enthusiasm for voting also favors the Democrats by 8 percentage points in October, the same as in September. Independents are considerably less enthusiastic about voting than are partisans, as shown in Table 6.
Table 6: Enthusiasm about voting, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Enthusiasm | |||
| Very enthusiastic | Somewhat enthusiastic | Not too enthusiastic | Not at all enthusiastic | |
| October 2026 | ||||
| Among all registered voters | 51 | 25 | 18 | 6 |
| Republican | 49 | 25 | 18 | 7 |
| Independent | 35 | 26 | 28 | 11 |
| Democrat | 57 | 25 | 15 | 3 |
| September 2026 | ||||
| Among all registered voters | 46 | 31 | 18 | 4 |
| Republican | 46 | 32 | 19 | 3 |
| Independent | 23 | 30 | 30 | 17 |
| Democrat | 54 | 31 | 14 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, Oct. 14-22, 2026, and Sept. 16-23, 2026 | ||||
| Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the November 2026 elections for governor, Congress and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||||
Divisions within parties
Among Republican likely voters, 82% approve of the way President Donald Trump is doing his job as president, while 17% disapprove. Among Republican registered voters, 75% approve and 23% disapprove. Those Republicans who approve of Trump’s job performance are virtually unanimous in support of Tiffany. Among those who disapprove of Trump, Tiffany’s support slips, Crowley’s support rises, and the share who are undecided is notably higher in October than in September. Too few independents or Democrats approve of Trump to allow a similar comparison among those groups.
In October among likely voters, Tiffany wins 59% of Republicans who disapprove of Trump, Crowley receives 25%, and 16% are undecided. Among registered Republicans who disapprove, Tiffany gets 61%, Crowley 17%, and 22% are undecided. While this relatively large number of undecideds is a potential source for some future gains for Tiffany, in September Tiffany did better among Trump-disapprovers and there were fewer who were undecided, as shown in Table 7.
Table 7: Vote for governor, by Trump approval among Republicans
Among Republicans
| Trump approval | Vote Choice | ||
| Tom Tiffany | David Crowley | Haven’t decided | |
| October 2026–Likely voters | |||
| Approve | 99 | 0 | 1 |
| Disapprove | 59 | 25 | 16 |
| October 2026–Registered voters | |||
| Approve | 98 | 0 | 2 |
| Disapprove | 61 | 17 | 22 |
| September 2026–Likely voters | |||
| Approve | 99 | 0 | 1 |
| Disapprove | 71 | 24 | 5 |
| September 2026–Registered voters | |||
| Approve | 96 | 0 | 4 |
| Disapprove | 77 | 14 | 9 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, Oct. 14-22, 2026, and Sept. 16-23, 2026 | |||
| Question: If the election for governor were held today between (Tom Tiffany, the Republican), and (David Crowley, the Democrat), would you vote for (Tom Tiffany) or for (David Crowley) or haven’t you decided? | |||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? | |||
Among Republican likely voters, 80% have a favorable view of the MAGA movement; among Democratic likely voters, 64% are favorable to democratic socialists. As with Trump approval, Republicans unfavorable to MAGA are less supportive of Tiffany than are pro-MAGA Republicans, 99% of whom support Tiffany. Among Democrats, favorability to democratic socialists is only modestly related to vote for Crowley, with more than 90% of both groups of Democrats (both favorable and unfavorable to democratic socialists) backing him. These results are shown in Table 8.
Table 8: Vote for governor, by party identification and MAGA/Dem Socialist
Among likely voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | ||
| Tom Tiffany | David Crowley | Haven’t decided | |
| October 2026 | |||
| Among likely voters | 44 | 51 | 4 |
| Republican, fav MAGA | 99 | 0 | 1 |
| Republican, non-MAGA | 64 | 22 | 14 |
| Independent | 26 | 56 | 18 |
| Democrat, non-dem socialist | 1 | 93 | 6 |
| Democrat, fav dem socialist | 0 | 100 | 0 |
| September 2026 | |||
| Among likely voters | 46 | 49 | 5 |
| Republican, fav MAGA | 99 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican, non-MAGA | 73 | 20 | 7 |
| Independent | 18 | 44 | 38 |
| Democrat, non-dem socialist | 4 | 92 | 4 |
| Democrat, fav dem socialist | 2 | 98 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, Oct. 14-22, 2026, and Sept. 16-23, 2026 | |||
| Question: If the election for governor were held today between (Tom Tiffany, the Republican), and (David Crowley, the Democrat), would you vote for (Tom Tiffany) or for (David Crowley) or haven’t you decided? | |||
| Note: Republicans are split by favorability to the MAGA movement, Democrats by favorability to democratic socialists. | |||
