MADISON, Wis. — New reporting from Heartland Signal details how the Van Orden-backed Canadian tariffs will negatively impact Wisconsin dairy farmers. The story points out that despite the fact that Van Orden promised to advocate dairy farmers while in Congress, he now supports Trump’s tariffs, and has missed a significant amount of Agriculture Committee hearings since 2024.

Heartland Signal: Van Orden Backs Canada Tariffs as Wisconsin Dairy Braces for Fallout
By: Richard Perins | 10/21/26

Wisconsin dairy farmers, especially those in the state’s 3rd Congressional District, are facing uncertainty amid a trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada that has stretched throughout this summer and fall.

After the Trump administration imposed a 50% tariff on Aug. 22 on more than $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, including dairy, Canada matched those tariffs effective Sept. 8. While the full effects of the dispute are not yet clear, the economic pressures facing Wisconsin — the second-largest milk-producing state — are a factor in the race for representation in its 3rd District.

The race could be influential in the partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives next year. The seat, currently held by Republican Derrick Van Orden, is labeled as a toss-up by Cook Political Report.

Van Orden serves on the House Agriculture Committee, and has said throughout his career that dairy farmers are his top priority. 

At the same time, the congressman has consistently backed policies from the Trump administration, including supporting the president’s Canada trade war, voicing his support for the war in Iran and denouncing the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down some of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. He also missed 10 Agriculture Committee hearings since 2024.

Van Orden’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

His Democratic challenger, Rebecca Cooke, has campaigned on reversing tariffs during agriculture-focused stops this fall.

The tariffs have put hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. dairy sales to Canada at risk, said Leonard Polzin, a dairy markets specialist with the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He estimated the measures could reduce dairy prices — particularly for cheese, which is tariffed at 25% — by 20 to 35 cents per hundredweight. Wisconsin, he said, is more exposed than other states.

“This is where more of the impact will actually be felt,” he said.

Shawna Morris, executive vice president for trade policy and global affairs at the National Milk Producers Federation, said it’s too soon to have a true sense of how far those measurable effects will go. 

She expects cheese sold directly to Canadian retailers to be particularly exposed. 

“If [products] are headed for further processing or some sort of processing step in Canada, then there’s an exemption process that Canada’s introduced for those,” Morris said. “So, that really leaves most of the impact being faced by those that are destined primarily for sale direct to Canadian consumers.”

The trade dispute comes at a “unique time and space” in the dairy industry, Polzin said, because of “unprecedented” investment in dairy processing.

From 2025 to 2027, Polzin estimated the industry will see more than $13 billion in investment. That’s because lower milk prices have prompted processors to drive much of the growth in production, rather than dairy farmers reinvesting in their own operations.

The result is an industry poised to produce more dairy products, much of which, Polzin believes, will need buyers overseas.

“Exports then kind of become this relief valve for the U.S. dairy market,” he said. “Any sort of friction in trade then becomes difficult for exporting product. So that’s kind of the greater underlying challenge or headwind.”

And as processing investments encourage farms to expand, larger operations may have fewer options for scaling back if milk prices were to fall further, he said. Specialized facilities have fewer alternatives.

“Your options are to milk cows, or to milk cows,” Polzin said.

With more barriers to those international markets, he said the industry’s long-term financial stability is threatened, and prices could stay low for longer.

“Going forward, when we see lower prices, we’ll likely see them persist longer, because we’re not going to see that supply response that we historically did,” Polzin said.

And as Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District heads toward an election that could help change the partisan dynamics of the U.S. federal government, Morris said it’s difficult to predict how and when the trade dispute will resolve.

“It’s hard to tell how long we’ll stay at this stalemate,” she said. “Hopefully, cooler heads will begin to prevail.”