Dane County’s housing market is facing slower inventory growth and faster price increases than expected, according to an analysis from Stark County Realtors CEO David Stark. 

“Only three months into the new year we’ve already had more curve balls thrown our way than we normally get in a full year,” he wrote. 

In his latest Spring Market Source Newsletter, Stark noted earlier forecasts from three months ago predicted inventories in the county would increase by 15%. He called that a “safe prediction” given that inventory levels were 24% ahead of 2025, but it hasn’t proven out. 

As of April 6, the latest date captured in his report, residential inventories for Dane County were only 6.2% higher over the year. What’s more, single-family inventories are 3.6% lower than they were at this point last year, after starting the year 20% above last year. Still, condo inventories in the county grew by 40.8% over the year. 

Stark wrote “this inventory stickiness surprises us a little,” noting inventories in the county grew by 17% in the first three months of 2025. 

“So far in 2026, we’ve only managed to fight our way back to where we started,” he said, noting inventory levels fell to 643 in January after starting the year at 751, and have now bounced back to 753. 

While Stark noted it’s not unusual for inventories to dip in the first two months of the year, “the drop was more pronounced than usual this year, and the recovery has been sluggish.” 

And though homes are selling at a “decent pace,” the number of new listings are falling short of demand, making it difficult for the county to build up its inventory. 

Meanwhile, earlier expectations around prices underestimated the increase seen so far this year, according to Stark. He noted the earlier forecast expected prices to rise by an aggregate 2%, but the 12-month median has already hit $455,000 three months into the year, an increase of 3.41%. 

And with the largest price increases expected to come in the second quarter, “prices seem to be rising faster” than they were last year, Stark wrote. 

Still, despite missing expected targets, he said the market is still on track for a good year, adding “we still think the best is ahead for our housing market.” 

See the full report.