The latest episode of “Talking Trade” features a discussion on upcoming tariff developments with Brett Ewer, a principal with Michael Best Strategies.
The Trump administration’s temporary Section 122 tariffs are set to expire Friday.
It’s widely expected the office of the U.S. Trade Representative will issue a determination before then about forced labor occurring in dozens of countries, forming the basis for Section 301 tariffs being enacted in their place.
That’s according to Ewer, who said “everyone is waiting I think right now with bated breath” for the existing tariff framework to expire. He said observers expect the USTR determination to identify forced labor happening in 60 countries that make up 99% of all U.S. imports, and finalize tariff rates between 10% and 12.5%.
“That is baked into what everyone is expecting before the 122 tariffs expire, so everyone’s eyes are on those,” he said.
Ewer says the earlier International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs enacted by the administration and later struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court were seen as “arbitrary.” By contrast, the Section 301 tariffs are more expansive and seem to be on firmer legal footing, as they hinge on related investigations of the countries being targted.
When asked about related lobbying in Washington, D.C., where he’s based, Ewer described a “feeding frenzy” as interest groups seek to make their case.
“We’re in the piranha pool right now,” he said. “Everyone is trying to get a bite.”
He noted manufacturers and others with distributed supply chains have a major stake in this process, while the agriculture industry is seeking to maintain stability in commodity markets and ensure what they’re selling remains both affordable and profitable.
“Farms need to be able to exist as a going concern, so they’re going to be focused on things like dairy, avocados … beef, cattle ranchers are a huge presence in D.C.,” Ewer said.
The discussion also explores the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and expectations for future trade deals forged between the participating nations.
Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. President and Managing Director Sandi Siegel and sponsored by the Dairy Farmers of Wisconsin, Carroll University and Michael Best Strategies.
