Contact: Shawn Phetteplace, Main Street Action, 608-385-6488

Survey shows Hong at 44 percent with two weeks to go after election shake-up

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MADISON, Wis., July 28th, 2026 — A new poll of likely Wisconsin Democratic primary voters, conducted by State Navigate and released jointly by Main Street Action, which represents over 3,500 small business owners across Wisconsin, and UpNorthNews, shows Rep. Francesca Hong holding a commanding lead in the race for governor, with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes locked in a close fight for second place.

The survey of 1,085 likely voters, conducted July 23 through July 26, found Hong at 44 percent, Crowley at 15 percent, and Barnes at 14 percent, with other contenders and withdrawn candidates at four percent or less. Thirteen percent of voters remain undecided. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percent.

Hong’s lead looks similar among voters who have already cast ballots. Among the sample’s 11 voters who have reported returning their absentee ballot, Hong leads with 43 percent, well ahead of Barnes at 18 percent and Rodriguez, who has since dropped out of the race, at 16 percent.

Three’s Still a Crowd for Anti-Hong Efforts

Crowley’s decision to re-enter the race appears to have scrambled the contest for second place rather than consolidating it, while Hong has surged past her opponents. Among voters who are currently planning to vote for Crowley or leaning his way, 34 percent selected Barnes as their second choice in the primary, a likely indicator that Crowley’s largely siphoned support from Barnes rather than Hong. Barnes’ own supporters split their second choice between Crowley (27 percent) and Hong (26 percent).

Hong’s support looks more locked in than the rest of the field’s. Thirty percent of voters who name a first choice say they have no second choice or don’t know, and Hong’s backers are the most likely to fall into that group, an indicator that her coalition is less persuadable than her rivals’.

Ideology and the issues driving the race

Voters placed themselves and the candidates on a 10-point scale running from “Extremely Conservative” to “Democratic Socialist” in the survey. The average Democratic primary voter is a “Progressive/Liberal” at 7.3. Voters saw Hong as the most left-wing candidate in the field at 9.1 (an “Extreme Progressive/Liberal”; Kelda Roys and Barnes are the closest to the median primary voter at 6.8; Crowley is viewed as the second-most moderate candidate at 6.3, and Joel Brennan as the most moderate candidate at 5.9.

In an open-ended question about what will most influence their vote, respondents most frequently mentioned economic issues, affordability and the cost of living, data centers, electability, and healthcare as the top issues impacting who they’ll vote for in the primary.

Treasurer’s race remains wide open

In the down-ballot race for state treasurer, Yee Leng Xiong leads Dylan Helmenstine 21 percent to 13 percent, with two-thirds of likely voters still undecided, leaving the race very much in play heading into August. If the undecideds follow the results among those who already voted, though, it bodes well for Leng Xiong: among the voters who have returned an absentee ballot, Len Xiong holds 42% of the vote to Helmenstine’s 21%; 38% of these voters do not remember who they voted for in this primary, however.

Methodology

This survey was fielded from July 23-26, 2026, among 1,085 likely Democratic primary voters across the state of Wisconsin. Respondents were contacted via text and completed an online survey designed by the State Navigate Polling Committee. Results were weighted by party identification, age, gender, race, education, voter registration date, and region, with benchmarks derived from the voter file, the U.S. Census Bureau, and prior election results. The margin of error is ±3% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was conducted by State Navigate, a nonpartisan 501(c)(3) organization, and was not sponsored by any party, candidate, or candidate’s committee.

About Main Street Action: 

The US Chamber and NFIB have spoken for small businesses long enough — and convinced everyone that Main Street is conservative. It isn’t.

Today’s small business owners have more in common with their customers than with corporate America. The same forces squeezing them from above are squeezing their customers from below. Main Street and the people it serves are in this together.

Main Street Action is building the infrastructure to prove it — recruiting and deploying small business owners as trusted economic messengers in battleground states: in local media, on social platforms, in the halls of power, and at the ballot box. These aren’t spokespeople. They’re neighbors, employers, and community anchors who make economic arguments in ways no politician or pundit can.

Main Street Action represents over 3,500 small business owners across Wisconsin. 

About UpNorthNews: UpNorthNews is a locally based digital news source dedicated to exploring how the daily goings-on in places of power—especially Madison and Washington, DC—impact Wisconsin families and communities. Our people-centered, fact-based stories are delivered in a variety of ways, including graphics and video for social media, website articles, and newsletters delivered straight to your inbox.

About State Navigate: State Navigate is a 501(c)(3) nonpartisan nonprofit organization that’s dedicated to providing the public with a compass for state legislatures and state governance as a whole. State Navigate creates and curates data on state government, including on election results, legislative ideology, roll call votes, committees, district demographics, candidate campaign finance data, forecasts, original and aggregated news, and polling. In 2025 (its inaugural year), State Navigate was the most accurate pollster in the country by Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin for the gubernatorial elections that year.