RAYMOND, Wis. — New polling from Impact Research finds a dead heat in Wisconsin’s First District, as ER Nurse Mitchell Berman trails Bryan Steil by just 1 point in the initial vote: 49 percent to 48 percent.

“This polling shows what Mitchell has been hearing directly from Wisconsin voters on the ground for months: people are fed up with Bryan Steil and ready for change,” said Brett Anders, Mitchell Berman for Congress Campaign Manager. “Steil can’t outrun political gravity, and it’s become clearer and clearer that Wisconsinites are sick of Steil looking out for his wealthy donors and gutting health care to pay for tax cuts for billionaires – the momentum is with ER nurse, dad, and rural Wisconsinite Mitchell Berman to win this race.”

Findings and recommendations are based on the results of a live phone and text-to-web survey conducted by Impact Research from August 6-9, 2026 among N=400 likely 2026 general election voters in Wisconsin’s First Congressional District. The margin of error is +/- 4.9% for the full sample and is higher for subgroups.

Following brief balanced bios of both candidates, Mitchell Berman takes the lead by two points over Steil, 50 percent to 48 percent. The poll also found that Trump is seven points underwater in this district he won by four points in 2024. Voters are souring on Trump and Steil and open to new Democratic representation – the generic ballot is tied 44 percent to 44 percent. 

Wisconsin’s First District is primed to host a competitive race this fall, and this poll is just the latest indication. Cook’s PVI rates the district as R+2 and liberal justices have carried the district in recent State Supreme Court elections, including Justice Chris Taylor earlier this year, who won the district by double digits. The path to a statewide Democratic gubernatorial victory runs directly through this district – and after years of doing Trump’s bidding and selling out Wisconsin’s First District, Bryan Steil’s time is up.

Read the full polling memo here.