Race rating shifts from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” following recent polling showing statistical tie in Wisconsin’s First Congressional District
WASHINGTON, DC — Today, Cook Political Report, a leading national race forecaster, shifted Wisconsin’s First Congressional District from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” as ER Nurse Mitchell Berman closes in on vulnerable incumbent Bryan Steil. Cook announced the ratings shift as a group of 15 House races shifted towards Democrats, with the national generic ballot at D+8.1 and polling in WI-01 showing Berman and Steil in a dead heat.
As a working-class, union ER Nurse who spent over a decade at the VA, Berman has focused his campaign on lowering the cost of living, fixing a broken healthcare system, and ending the corruption in Washington. His campaign has quickly caught national attention, with over $1 million raised from over 25,000 grassroots donors, and was last week added to the DCCC’s national “Red to Blue” list of the most competitive House races in the country. Early polling showed the race in a dead heat, with Steil leading Berman by one point (49-48), and Berman taking the lead by two points (50-48) after positive biographies were shared for both candidates.
Over the past several weeks, Steil and special interest independent expenditures have poured millions of dollars into the race, including over $250,000 from Trump-backed No Going Back PAC. Despite the onslaught of outside cash, Steil appears as vulnerable as ever.
Berman’s first TV ad, running district-wide, highlights Steil’s corporate backing. “Bryan Steil gets millions from special interests,” Berman says in the ad, which shows him fishing in a creek on his property in rural Wisconsin. “Me? Not so much… Congress has plenty of politicians. We need more people that live like us.”
Born and raised in a one-stoplight town in rural Wisconsin, Mitchell Berman learned the values of community, integrity, and hard work from his parents. He was the first in his family to graduate college, working three jobs and taking out student loans to earn his degree. Determined to build a life through grit and perseverance, not privilege, he started working at age 12 and became a union member while in college. Berman is an emergency room nurse who has served veterans at the VA for more than a decade. A devoted husband and father, he’s running for Congress to put people over politics, and to fight for Wisconsin families.
The First Congressional District is one of the most competitive in the country. The district encompasses Janesville, Kenosha, Racine, Beloit, Elkhorn, Whitewater, and the Milwaukee suburbs of Cudahy, St. Francis, and South Milwaukee. In 2024, Donald Trump carried the swing district narrowly with just 51 percent of the vote. In both the 2023 and 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court elections, Justices Janet Protasiewicz and Susan Crawford won the district handily by 6- and 6.5-point margins, respectively, and Justice Chris Taylor carried the district by over ~15 points in April 2026. Learn more at BermanForCongress.com.
