DCCC Analytics Poll shows WI-01 race tied 48-48 despite millions already spent by Republicans
WASHINGTON, DC — A new DCCC analytics poll conducted September 21-23 shows the race for Wisconsin’s First District in a dead heat, with ER Nurse Mitchell Berman running even with incumbent Republican Bryan Steil, who is losing ground to Berman. The poll shows the race tied in the initial vote, 48-48.
The race has drawn national attention, with the DCCC recently adding the First District to Red to Blue, its list of the most competitive seats to flip, and the nonpartisan race rater Cook Political Report shifting the district from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” just last week.
Republican independent expenditures have already poured over $4 million into the race in an attempt to prop up Steil and attack Berman. The Trump-backed No Going Back PAC has spent over $250,000 and a new crypto-backed Super PAC, Wisconsin Working PAC, is spending over $500,000. Despite the flood of cash, Steil is barely treading water, and appears to have actually lost ground when compared to polling last month that showed him with a slim lead over Berman, 48-47.
The new DCCC poll also shows Trump deeply underwater, in a stark shift from the 2024 election which saw the district swing to Trump by 4.5 points. The poll shows just 39% approve of the job Trump is doing, compared to 55% who disapprove.
Berman, an ER nurse who spent over a decade caring for veterans and their families at the VA, has focused his campaign on lowering the cost of living, fixing a broken healthcare system, and ending the corruption in Washington.
Born and raised in a one-stoplight town in rural Wisconsin, Mitchell Berman learned the values of community, integrity, and hard work from his parents. He was the first in his family to graduate college, working three jobs and taking out student loans to earn his degree. Determined to build a life through grit and perseverance, not privilege, he started working at age 12 and became a union member while in college. Berman is an emergency room nurse who has served veterans at the VA for more than a decade. A devoted husband and father, he’s running for Congress to put people over politics, and to fight for Wisconsin families.
The First Congressional District is one of the most competitive in the country. The district encompasses Janesville, Kenosha, Racine, Beloit, Elkhorn, Whitewater, and the Milwaukee suburbs of Cudahy, St. Francis, and South Milwaukee. In 2024, Donald Trump carried the swing district narrowly with just 51 percent of the vote. In both the 2023 and 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court elections, Justices Janet Protasiewicz and Susan Crawford won the district handily by 6- and 6.5-point margins, respectively, and Justice Chris Taylor carried the district by over ~15 points in April 2026. Learn more at BermanForCongress.com.
